Late US Bet

£40 on Blake to beat Lopez at 1.82

Blake comin back to form slowly. Likes the American swing where lopez has a decent record at best. Will take blake at small stakes until he gets more game time.

Potential Profit £32.80

Late Friday

£80 on Tipsarevic at 2.64 to beat baghdatis
Potential profit £132.80

Friday's Bets

£60 on Davydenko to beat Chela at 2.36 at +1-3 +0-30
Although this is one of the slowest clay courts arond, i believe chela lacks the mentality and weapons these days to beat the best no matter the court. Davy has winners points to defend and should have enough to overcome the argie.
Potential Profit £81.60

Thursday's Bets

Unfortunately a little late in my write ups but today's bets (which i backed yesterday but perfect time to write as gulbis is 1-1 in sets above price matched) were,

£80 on gulbis to beat Falla at 1.46
Gulbis has big time talent and i think that he is soon going to produce at a major (on at 130 for US Open, a little soon probably but trading options). He should have too much for falla, still hurting from pushing fed so hard.
Potential Profit £36.80

£60 on Blake to beat becker at 1.6
Blake is slowly coming to form. He has had a tough year after struggling badly with injuries. He had an impressive r1 win over mayer and the more games he play the better. Becker has never fared great in american swing and i believe blake, despite being inconsistent at the best of times is a worthy strong favourite.
Potential Profit £36

Tuesdays Late Bets

The brain stagger proved a very expensive mistake. Take three for now.

£80 on Tipsarevic to beat devvarmann at 1.47
Potential Profit £37.60

£30 on Schuettler to beat ginepri at 2.6
Potential Profit £48

£25 on anderson to beat querrey 3.05
Potential Profit £51.25

Crazy Bets

After the shambles that was santiago giraldo, i have a number of bets. This is by no means a way of me chasing as i feel there is great value in all, but i don't have the heart to gve individual reasons.

£65 on malisse at 1.53 to beat sela
Potential profit £34.45

£60 on Kevin Anderson to beat Marchenko at 1.6
potential Profit £36

£20 on vliegen to beat sweeting at 2.78
Potential Profit £35.60

£25 on petzchner to beat rochus at 2.58
Potential profit £39.50

£60 on fognini at 1.57 to beat phau
Potential Profit £34.20

£25 on hanescu at 2.4 to beat DGT
Potential Profit £35

£60 on falla at 1.59 to beat k. beck
Potentail profit £35.40

£15 on m.gonzalez to beat seppi at 3.55
Potential Profit £38.25

£120 on bellucci at 1.25 to beat chuidinelli
Potential Profit £30

Late Monday Bet

£20 on giraldo at 4.8 at 0-0 2-0* tipsa
Giraldo in control of most rallies, but making too many errors. Crazy price as he had two break points in first game.
Potential Profit £76

Sunday Value

£50 on John Isner to beat Mardy Fish at 2.68
Bookies have went so overboard following fish's great form and victory over roddick. Isner with his serve will be extremely hard to break and see this game much close to 50-50. Simply shocked at the prices and think isner is great value.
Potential Profit £83

Late Bet

£12 on Lukas Lacko to beat Lleyton hewitt at 4.8
Lacko came through a tough encounter vs kuniytsun. He won the last two sets on tbs and this will give him an advantage over hewitt as he has time to adjust to the conditions. I believe hewitt is plenty short at 1.25 as this is his first game since wimb and it is hard to know how he will go. Lacko worth a shot.
Potential Profit £45.60

Wednesday's Bet

£60 on Fish at 1.62 to beat Genepri
Fish on great form, winning newport after queens final and looking to follow it up. I see value in the price considering his form, making the h2h irrelevant as there was different form and most games were some time ago.
Potential Profit £37.20

Tuesday's Bets

£60 on Fognini to beat Gicquel at 1.51
Fognini the more natural dirtballer of the two. He came through a tough encounter yesterday against the Spanish qualifier Hidalgo. Gicquel was beat quite easily in qualies and despite the fact i am always wary of lucky loser's, given his form this year, and his preference for faster surfaces fognini looks the obvious pick. Further, the fact this is a slower clay court will only aid fog, and given his french open this year, he showed his credentials, outlasting monfils, he should have enough today.
Potential Profit £30.60

£60 on Sela to beat Donald at 1.65 av
Sela has had a pretty good year but showed his worth come the grass season where he produced a great display to beat roddick at Queens. He likes the faster surfaces, with his net game excellant for such a small man. Also, despite having a weak serve his variation makes it hard to break on thesxe faster surfaces. Donald, for all his talent, is only returning to atp tour, and i believe it is a big ask to beat sela, who won their only meeting, in his first atp game since his break.
Potential Profit £39

£60 on Muller to beat Przysiezny at 1.52
Muller is slowly coming back to the form that he is capable of. He came through qualifying impressively and leads the h2h 2-0 with both enounters coming this year. Given his booming serve on this faster surface, he will be hard to break and should have enough to get through this.
Potential Profit £31.20

£35 on Anderson to beat Tipsarevic at 2.32
With anderson's huge serve it will be hard for tipsa to break on these quicker surfaces. Tipsa, despite having a decent record on faster terrain gets increasingly frustrated and can lose concentration, which is not what is needed today where he will need his full concentration to take out anderson as if he loses his serve once it will be hard to break back in that set. Further, he has been his usual inconsistent self this year, following a good performance he got to the final in Holland the week before wimb, before getting beat by stak winning only three games, and going on to wimb eher he was quite easily accounted for by the ageing clement. He really is a mixed bag and i will take the free point machine on this faster terrain at above evens.
Potential Profit £46.20

Monday's Late Games

£30 on Ram to beat Beck at 2.5
The courts are said to play much like Washington where the courts play very fast. This should suit both players, but more so ram who seems to need the court like an ice rink. I watched beck at newport and his performance was nothing short of appalling. He simply didnt look like he wanted to be there. He had a decent run at aptos ch before pulling out with a right shoulder injury. Before that, however he lost 11 of his last 12 between grass clay hard and indoor, including losing to ram, showing that he simply wasn't at it. I can't have him as a relatively strong fav, given his form and that ram leads h2h winning 2 recent games and will take the american even given his awful last peformance, given becks recent conditioning and form.
Potential Profit £45

£35 on Russell at 2.42 to beat Becker
Russell usually perfroms in the American swing, winning games he should. Today he faces becker who is having a good year with some solid performances. This is his first game since having a few injury concerns following wimb amking him vulnerable agianst russell who will force him to hit one more shot, which could force becker into errors. Russell leads the h2h 3-1 winning the most recent encounter and i can see him coming out on top in what will inevitabely be a tight encounter.
Potential Profit £49.70

Monday's Initial Bets

£25 on Mariano Gonzalez to beat O. Rochus at 2.46
Mariano is the more natural dirtballer of the two. I always think rochus is too small to be a good clay courter as the ball bounces too high for him. Although the fact this is a lower bouncng clay court will lessen that. He comes off a grass court final and a decent wimb performance but the transition may cause him some problems. Gonzalez has had some decent performances lately and i can see an upset.
Potential Profit £36.50

£25 on Cuevas to beat f. mayer at 2.5
Cuevas is showing returns to some of his decent form that he showed at times last year. He performed well last week, with some good wins and will be looking to carry that form into this game where he has sf points to defend from last year. He usually performs well on slower clay where even though his serve wins him cheap points on quicker dirt. Mayer is a player who in myopinion prefers quicker dirt and after a tough last few tounies is very vulnerable in a tough match up today. But for mayer's recent good form odds would be much close to evens.
Potential Profit £37.50

£40 on Gruel to beat Bolelli at 1.99
Gruel showed some good form last week in his run to the qf, where he beat gilles simon along the way before losing to jcf in two close sets where he had his chances. Today in front of his home fans he faces an off form bolelli this year, despite a recent ch win, who lost in qualies last week before making it through this week. I always think sibo is a confidence player and despite showing some signs lately i believe gruel in front of his fans is a big ask with his current mental state.
Potential Profit £39.60

Rocking Robin's Pride

£50 on Soderling at 1.64 to beat almagro
First thing up watched bits of almagro and he looked seriously impressive although robredo seemed to be his own worst enemy at times. Robin proved he wants this tournament badly today. After a horrendous first set, where he gave away many break points and was an error machine, he played great, serving huge. He only lost 5 points on serve in the last two sets which speaks volumes against a good returner like ferrer. In almagro it seems a decent match up with the h2h at 3-2 and almagro has a poor h2h against similar players to sod - 0-3 vs tsonga, 0-2 vs cilic and berdych 1-3. I believe if sod can reproduce the performance of final two sets with same serving stats, he will have too much, with home adv being an extra bonus. Further with the big serve and fh, the game is on the sod racket. I'll give sod another go.
Potential Profit £32
New Bank £870

Saturday's Bet

Was going to do monty again but with the drift this morning the value there is gone.

£30 on soderling to beat ferrer at 2
Soderling is at his home tourni. Despite this he has seemed to struggle as seen when he lost a set to his countryman Vinci before being a break down in sets two and three wih seppi serving for the match. Despite this he showed great resolve getting through. He faces ferrer today who seems in good nick. The h2h is at 6-2 sod and i believe this shows his strengthin the match up. Like monty yesterday i believe it is a matter of time before sod fires and i believe that although this is the surface that offers ferrer the most chance to beat ferrer, sod is more than a 50%chance.
Potential Profit £30

£40 on Monfils to beat DGT at 1.6
Monfils done well beating mayer yesterday following losing the first set. His performance greatly improved following it and if he produces the same it will be enough to beat the limited dirtballer DGT. DGT has been serving very big all week claiming some decent wins, but i believe monfils is the much better player, who seems to be hitting form and should have too much. The way DGT has been serving could be a tight game but i expect monfils to win possibly by a tb and a break. Expected price just below 1.5, so at current prices i see some value.
Potential Profit £24

Friday's Selections

£15 on Gruel to beat Ferrero at 3.55
Still not convinced ferrero has refound his form following a tough couple of months. If ferrero does find the form of february this year, then his current price looks long. However, this form hasn't been seen in a while. Today, he faces gruel in front of his home fans and at current prices given current form there is some value in the german.
Potential Profit £38.25

£20 on montanes at 2.84 to beat melzer
I believe current prices are disrespectful to monty. He has not hit top form this week, but has done well against both opponnents to get through and he is liable to catch fire soon. He is a natural dirtballer and i believe the odds should be much closer than current prices. Further melzer is inconsistent at the best of times, and despite monty's terrible record vs lefties ill give him a shot.
Potential Profit £36.80

£30 on monfils at 2.1 to beat f. mayer
Monfils almost came a cropper against andujar. He has struggled for form lately with injury problems but despite this, i thought he'd be fav today and at current prices i'll give him a go to beat the in-form mayer who is finding some decent form. Monfils had a good davis cup win and followed it with a win vs andujar and i hope the improvement continues today in what will surely be a tight game.
Potential Profit £33

Bank lies at £770

Thursday's Bets

£50 on Robredo to beat Gulobev at 1.5
Robredo the more natural of the two dirtballers. He claimed his first win yesterday in five attempts and looks to be slowly coming back to form. He has a good record winning it twice in the past and he has semi final points to defend. He should have too much for Gul who in my opinion is decent on dirt but more suited to pacier terrain.
Potential Profit £25

£30 on GGL to beat Mayer at 2.4
This is all to do with price as i see this match as much closer to 50-50, despite mayer being the home dog. mayer like many players outside the top 30 is vulnerable after a big scalp. This can be seen at wimby after taking scalps of cilic and fish, he tamely retired unknown against lu when trailing by two sets. GGL has had a faltering year with some good wins and diabolical losses. I believe there is much value at prices to beat a mayer flaky at the best of times.
Potential Profit £42

Wednesdays Late bet

After missing montanes earlier due to other commitments i have selected another.
£40 on gilles simon at 1.69 to beat Greul
Gruel has been having a pretty poor year to date with nothing great to note, while simon has struggled with injuries, so it is a metting of two players who would have hoped for better years. Simon is slowlycoming back to form, with a win in a dead rubber followed by a victory over the tough jamaican. He should be too consistent off the ground for gruel today, forcing him into errors and for the second day running i will go against the home dog due to what i see as inflated prices as a result.
Potential Profit £27.60

Wednesday's Extra

£50 on Montanes to beat petzchner at 1.64
Monty is the natural dirtballer of the two. While his game has greatly improved on all surfaces in the past years he is still best on the dirt. Petz on the other hand is a player who has been on great form in the past months, as seen pusing nadal 5 sets. However he is not at his best on clay where his slice bh is much less effective and i believe monty can take him out after a hectic schedule. The fact that he is playing at home for the third time this year and given the other two times he got to semi finals, being defeated by federer and youz, which shows how strong he has been. Despite this i will give him a go.
Potential Profit £32

Tuesday's Starter

£30 on Mariano Gonzalez to beat Golubev at 2.16
Mariano is a limited dirtballer, who plays with big top spin, playing most of his career on the stuff with a 63% record on it. Golubev is a player who hits the ball very flat, preferring the quicker surfaces with indoor hard being his best surface imo. Gonzalez took a set off hewitt at wimby and got to a challenger final on clay in his previous tourni, so he is in decent nick. I don't think gonzalez will be too worried about facing golubev as he has fared quite well against similar flat hitters in the past and with his top spin game he should break down the golubev game where the backhand in particular can be attacked. I'll take the argie.
Potential profit £34.80
Bank now lies at £838.

Sunday's Pride

£30 on Nalbandian to beat Youz at 2.1
Nalby on form and fit is surely one of the best indoors players around. Today he faces a tough task in playing youz, a very good indoors player in front of his passionate fans. Nalby has been well rested since his great win on friday and i will take him to win this given his great indoor record and nere and great dc record. His nerve will see him through in a tight game hopefully.
Potential Profit £32

Wednesday's Bet

£40 on Mahut to beat Falla at 1.7
With the speed of the courts, i give quite strong favouritism to mahut with his massive serve, good net game and nice strokes. falla too has a decent grass game but at 1.7 ill give mahut the go with that simply huge serve as this grass court will be even more advantageous than queens and wimb where he had a decnt showing.
Potential Profit £28

Also to clarify had £28 on Kim at 2.1 and £8 on Levine at 5.9. Good luck all.

Tuesdays Bets

Have backed kevin kim and jessy levine (very small stake today). Have vvery little time so will be back later to clarify.

Monday's Bets

£68 on Olivier Rochus to beat Roger-Vasselin at 1.46
Rochus is here defending semi final points last year so there should be obvious motivation. Rochus loves the quicker pace courts and this is the fastest grass court about. Rochus showed good game vs djoker and i believe he should take the french man out, who despite holding an 18-10 grass court record but almost all of his wins have either been qualies and challengers. In fact the only matches he won won outside qualies and challengers was wimb 2007, showing his struggles. I believe rochus is simply better on faster terrain and should get the job done.
Potential Profit £31.28

£48 on Brown to beat Phau at 1.73
Brown showed earlier in joburg how much he favours the faster terrain. With his booming serve he should get a lot of free points on the quick terrain. Phau on the other hand is 6-15 on grass with no wins outside qualies. Brown showed good resolve beating dancevic at queens and i believe he will revel in the faster courts here and should have too much for phau. the fact ram won here last year shows how advantageous the courts are for big servers and i will take brown today.
Potential Profit £35.04

Friday Bet

£35 on nadal to beat murray at 1.8 at 3-2* to Murray
This will inevitablly be a tight clash between two of the world's greatest players. Think nadal has the edge on the grass court against murray as he has the greater variation in his game, with his volleys being a very underrated weapon. Murray has the losing h2h but more importantly has won their last two meetings in GS's, both on hard courts, one in Aus and one in USA. However, in both these games nadal had injury troubles with the US game coming at the end of a gruelling season which he won Wimb and French but this took a great toll on his body. The victory at Aus this year came with injury concerns over his knee and even with this he could have won the first two sets being a break up in both. He is back closer to full knick today on courts he is more suited to especially from USA's hard courts. I think he will edge it and there is a little value at current price imo.
Potential Profit £28

Extra

£15 on tsonga at 4.4 to beat murray
Potential Proft £51

£32 on Tsonga +5.5 games at 1.8
Potential Profit £25.60

£30 on Over 39.5 Games at 1.82
Potential Profit £24.60

Being British has led to a false price vs the capable tsonga. It will be tighter than prices suggest in my opinion. tsonga has won their only gs meeting in 08 and is a big game performer. Murray will have some nervous moments and this game has much more legs than prices suggest. I will take tsonga handicap, tsonga to win match and overs game. Murray will have to have a good serve % as it will be harder to break jo and murray needs to be in control of points. If murray lets his % drop below 50% he could be in trouble given tsonga's aggressive nature and big serve.

Wednesday's Bets

£25 on Lu +5.5 Games vs Djokovic at 2.16
Although i doubt lu has the mentality to beat djoker after beating roddick, i think he has a good chance today. He showed great mental strength and patience to beat roddick, waiting his time before breaking him in the final game of the match for the first time. Lu served great against roddick, holding his serev the whole match after being broken once in the first set. I believe joker will nget more returns into play as roddicks returning was shocking. Despite this i fancy lu to keep it tight with his serve firing and i will take him with the handicap.
Potential Profit £30
Also £8 on lu at 6 to win £40

£30 on berdych +5.5 at 1.84
Berdych knows to do well in this match he must serve big as it will be hard to break the federer serve. Berdych has proved this year his greater resolve and beat fed in a tight game so there is less of a sense of aura playing fed as that game went to the wire and berdy came through. He will look to stay with fed and i will take him with the games as i believe he has a good chance today.
Potential Profit £25.20

£35 on tie break in berdych game at 1.6
Similar to above berdych knows he must serve huge to win this match. He has had tbs in 3 of his four wimb games so i think there is a little value here. Playing big servers at wimb fed is usually content enough with tbs and has shown a great winning record in them over past years-look to his victories over roddick and ivo karlovic last year and vs soderling also. Further, there has been a tb the last 5 times they have played with 7 in total in those games.
Potential Profit £21
£12 on berdych at 5 to win £48 also

Monday's Bets

£48 on Hewitt to beat Djokovic at 2.16
Hewitt the form player with the greater grass record agains djokovic who hasn't had the best of luck here in recent years with defeats against veterans haas and safin. Hewitt comes in on great form having won at halle, beating fed in the final. He usually only gets defeated by the best on grass, rarely losing to players he shouldn't. The form djoker is in is a big concern for him and i fancy hewitt to edge through. The match is played in the middle of the day and the heat should favour hewitt as djoker has struggled with heat in the past. Ill take the experienced grinder to edge through in what will be a tight match.
Potential Profit £55.68

Extra

£20 on nadal at 1.86 at 2-1 to petz
Still time for nadal in a very close game. Must step forward a bit more and try to see it through.
Potential Profit £16

Nadal Bet

£120 on nadal at 1.2 at 1-1 3-3 30-15 to petz
Nadal should have too much in the end. Seems to be finding his game and his motivation is unquestionable.
Potential Profit £24

Chardy Update

Match just finished and another great choke from a player i have backed. Chardy leading 5-3 in the final set and 5*-4 15-0 and somehow found a way to lose. Good back at the price of 8.8 but i should have layed it off. However, it must also be noted that ferrer had a 2-0 4-2 lead and lost four straight games. This shows how frustrating tennis can be to bet on as players are choking big leads, especially any player i back lately.

However for the sake of the thread it is very hard to be able to lay a player in play and also record your actions here. For the sake of the thread and anyone following, i want to record all my bets when i make them so i can't be accussed of cheating or aftertiming. If anyone can think of a solution then that would be great. Was thinking of putting a lay in to be matched at a certain price (very low, below 1.2 in-play on any player i think has the capacity to choke -although it could be said every player is capable of a choke). Meffert, melzer and chardy are all players with question marks over the mental aspects in the past. Maybe i should just stick to pre-match bets as was intended at the start of this and any chokes will have to be taken on the chin.

Any insights or thoughts greatly appreciated.

Extra Bet

£10 on Chardy at 8.8 at 1-0 1-1* to ferrer
Long way to go in match and may look to trade out at some stage depending how the match is going. Just served out brilliantly from 0-40 with huge strokes and hopefully has momentum to kick on.
Potential Profit £78

Saturday's Bets

£40 on malisse to beat querrey at 3.5

Malisse is currently going through somewhat of a renaissance in his career. Approaching his 30th birthday, he has surely not got much time left to have a good grand slam run and should be ciewing this as one of his last chances. He never really pushed on from his semi final effort here in 2002, where he was beat in five sets in a titanic struggle by nalbandian.

The fact he never went higher than 19 (which he achieved shortly after that performance) highlights the underachievement and some of his performances in following years highlight that he perhaps didn't get over that dissappointment. The defeat the following year at wimbledon in rd 1 to saulnier in straight sets and great britains arvind parmer at nott the following year highlight how great he fell. In the last year he has found some of that grass form and has found confidence which comes from winning games. He is 8-2 this year on grass this year, reaching the qf at queens (losing to querrey) and sf in holland.

Today malisse faces querrey, the champion of Queens and the player who ended his good run there. However, despite this victory, i believe the bookies have went a little overboard with their prices, as he did not have to beat a player ranked under 70 in the rankings, showing the ease of his draw. Also, despite his size, decent serve and some decent grass performances of late, i am not convinced on him on grass as his movement on it is still very suspect and his net game still needs attention. The more games he plays the better he should get, but with only 28 games on lawns he is still relatively inexperienced.

Further, he has commented on troubles with the the transition form queens to wimbledon as the courts are playing slightly differently, with different bounces and speeds. All this could be seen in his stuttering defeat of the limited dodig, and if he hadn't choked in the 4th set tb we would have seen a five setter in a game querrey really should have romped.

Lastly, queerey has not got the best record at grand slams with a 44% record overall, and his lone last 16 appearance at US 2008 his best performance to date. He has suffered some poor defeats, few worse than this year in the first rd as a seed in both aus and french to schuettler and genepri repectively. Further, he has lost his two five setters to date and all this shows that he is vulnerable over 5 set games and his inexperience going the distance may tell. Malisse on the other hand is over 60% at GS level witha 10-11 record on games that go the distance of five sets. This better record and greater experience will hopefully see him over the line in a tight match, much tighter than odds may suggest.

Potential Profit £100

Any comments or reasoning greatly appreciated!

Back to it!

Following a tough last few games i decided to completely take a break and return after having a bad run, with luck clearly against me. Meffert losing from a set and a break up, mahut losing from winning the first set (after watching him in queens and seeing how fresh he looked after over 100 games in 5th set it is unbelievable how tired he looked against cilic after that first set in queens) and lastly melzer losing in a 3rd set tb from a break and a set up against an out of form zverev. I have had a gap of two weeks which i feel is sufficient and am returning now for what is left of wimbledon.

Having watched some of the tournament i must say it has made for some compelling viewing. It started with fed the first day in what would have been one of the biggest shocks of all time, and in my opinion the entertainment has not let up since.

The bank lies at a measly £820 and I will continue as before as i believe it is early days and my luck will turn. Good luck to all.

Thursday's Bet

£100 on melzer at 1.48

Very wary backing against the home dog, after previous disappointments on the first day, especially against a player with debatable motivation following a great performance at rg, making the semi-final. Zverev has had a terrible season (retiring twice in a row before rg), especially since marseille and will be glad to be on the faster surfaces again.

Looking to the match-up, first up two big servers with quite similar games, who like net-rushing are up against each other. Zverev's game is well suited to grass with his serve and volley game. This exactly the match up melzer loves. He has a great record against big servers (appart from roddick) mainly from keeping returns very deep, putting much pressure on the servers. Further melzer likes a target which is perfect for this match.

Also, zverev seems to struggle against big servers shown by a 35% career record accoring to tennisinsight losing 11 of last 12, with only 1 of last 10 games against a top 70 player. Lastly zverev has a terrible record against lefties with a 38% career record, losing the last 7 with all players outside top 50 and and four 100 or higher. Melzer on the other hand has a decent record vs lefties mirroring his career record against all players.

All in all it points to a melzer victory if he is up for it. I will take the gamble on his state of mind.

Potential Profit £48

Last Today Surely!

£16.5. on brown in play vs istoman at *5-6 in play at 3.17 av
Potential Profit almost £36

**Extra lay at 1.18 for £16 Profit at istoman 1-0

Only won tb 9-7 and surely someone as mentally questionable as istoman is a little low at current quotes given Brown on serve

Extras

£48 on mahut at 2.91 av
Mahut has come through the qualies and has played 4 matches. Cilic on the other hand is vulnerable in his first grass game this season and is vulnerable as he was last year against a big server like mahut on his return as it will be hard to find a rythm and great pressure will be put on his serve, even if mahut was broke a few times in rd 1 and qualies.
Potential Proft £91.68

£120 on Fish at 1.33

Fish is an experienced pro coming to the end of his long career. Like hewitt he today faces an up and coming player in santiago giraldo. Giraldo, like de bakker is inexperienced on grass 5-6 in his 11 matches with his wins coming in challengers or qualies before overcoming korolev in rd 1. This shows his inexperience in comparison to fish's 63% record on grass with an exceptoinally good record at queens, showed by victories over lopez and llodra here last year, both competent grass players. Further, giraldo will have to be strong on serve today as it will be hard to break fish and giraldo hasn't the best record vs strong servers. I'll take fish even at the short price, given his extra experience and doubts over giraldo's grass game.

Potential Profit £39.60

£28 on petz at 1.94 av at 2-1* and 4-3*

Germans have been great this week in halle and i see this continuing with petz who has been good in germany this year with a good performance in munich. He did well beating baggy and i see him continuing this against troicki, who still doesn't convince me, but for reduced stakes.

Potential Profit £26.32

Wednesday's Bets

£130 on Hewitt at 1.4
This is my big bet for tomorrow like mahut, but im not as confident as i was on that, given de bakker's great year as is evident with the reduced stake.
Here, we have a fading great against a player with much potential. However, the thing is hewitt loves this period of the year. He has a 81% career record on grass, which shows his strength on the stuff. Further since the grass season in 06 at queens which he won, only baggy, tsonga, roddick, novak and federer have beat him on grass, showing that it takes the top players to beat him (although tsonga defeat in 2 tbs came before he broke through).
De bakker struggles on faster surfaces as he is rushed more on his strokes as he prefers more time on his longer groundstrokes. Further he has only played 8 games on grass(4-4) with his non qf wins coming vs phau, who is especially awful on grass, at ned last year and bopanna here in rd1. This highlights his inexperience on the surface.
Hewitt strugles against power games on quicker surfaces but although de bakker possesses a decent serve, he does not have the capacity to blast him off court so there is nothing in the match up for him to fear. I will give hewitt the go as it should take a player more advanced to take the aussie out.
Potential Profit £48

£48 on mefferet at 2.52
I was impressed with the german the other day. His huge serve made up fo some glaring deficincies elsewhere. He served out many times from 0-30, never dropping his serve once. Lacko is still very inexperienced and i believe this may tell tomorrow as he will need patience and mental resolve with so few chances on serve. The german has had his greatest career result and has great momentum and in front of his home fans with his serve on this surface i will give him a great chance. I don't believe lacko's game matches great against big servers and this is a tough test for him and i believe his lack of know how may prove his downfall
Potential Profit £72.96

Will have another look in the morning as not all prices are upyet. Had considered llodra but at 1.4 on betfair against someone with a record like levine's on grass i quickly passed.

Tuesday's Bet

£200 on mahut at 1.4
After being burnt on backing against the home dogs in halle, ill put all my money on one player tomorrow. This is mahut who lives for this period of the year. He had a good queens last year where he beat cilic before being taking out by dr ivo.

Further, he comes into this tourni on good form. He won his first french open match in rd 1 before pushing melzer to four sets, losing a tb at 1-1. He then qualified for queens and the fact he has three games under his belt witha day break means he comes into the match in perfect nick.

Lu on the other hand hasnt played since his rd1 defeat to ljubicic. He has a terrible 38% career record on grass with most his wins coming some time ago. He is 1-9 in last 10 with his only win on grass since nottinham 2006 coming against colin fleming in three at eastbourne last year. Mahut on the other hand is 64% on grass showing the real difference between the two.

Lastly lu struggles against powerful servers. This is highlighted by tennisinsights stats of 44% against big servers (although some of the players there are debatable). He has a losing h2h of 3-0 vs karlovic, roddick and more importantly a 4-0 losing h2h vs mahut with the most recent victory coming this year in johannasberg. Lastly to beat mahut he will have to hold serve all day and i am not sure this is possible. A very confident call.

Potential Profit £80

Monday's Bets

£44 on sela at 1.67
Sela had a good grass campaign last year, losing in three in rd 1 at halle last year, before making the qtrs in in Holland and the 4th at wimbledon to novak. He has had a poor campaign to date and has surely been looking forward to the grass season as it seems to suit his game as he is very accomplished at net. He has no points to defend from last year here so it is his best chance to get up the rankings as he will have to do well in the coming weeks to defend last years points. Guccione has a poor career record on grass with nearly all his 25 wins coming in qualies and ch level. Further he is 2-8 in last 10 and his only wins on grass since wimb 2007 have come against bogdanovic, lu and Amritaj showing his troubles. Ill take sela to continue his grass form.
Potential Profit £29.48

£68 on Baghdatis at 1.43
Baggy has a great record on grass. Given his form on clay which is meant to be his worst surface comfortably we can see what form he is hitting. Petz with his slice bh is decent on grass but unspectacular and i fancy baggy to hit through him today even in front of his home fans.
Potential Profit £29.24

£44 on muller at 1.62
Muller has been quite impressive since his return from injury. He has played mainly on the challenger tour and seems to be getting his confidence back. He will be hard to break today and i fancy his to get past his innexperienced opponent in what will be a tight match.
Potential Profit £27.52

£200 on Fish at 1.18
Not much to say. Fish is experienced and is usually consistent on grass. Devvarman does not possess a serve of any difficulty and i think fish should get it done in two.
Potential Profit £36

Extra £10 on baker tro beat istoman at 4.8

Istoman poor record on grass and ill have a little on the home dog.

Potential Profit £38

Monday's Bets

£200 on ferrero at 1.15
Ferrero had a great grass campaign last year making his way to queens sf and wimbledon qf beating gonzo and simon at wimbledon. Grass has become one of his favourite surfaces in recent years after once being the king of clay. He is getting towards the end of his career and even at this price i will take him against the german journeyman, who has little record on grass as well as any other surface.
Potential Profit £30
More bets to follow

Sunday's extra

Lay nadal 3-0 at 1.55 at 1-0 3*-2 in sets for £23.50 Liability
Possible Profit £25

Sunday's Bets

£28 on tie break at 1.84
Soderling has to serve big. Nadal has needed tie breaks in both his last matches. In meeting last year there was two tbs and i believe the price should be below 1.8.
Potential Profit £23.52

£12 on sod to beat nadal at 4.3
Sod has the game that troubles nadal. He hits the fh so big that it goes through clay. Nadal has struggled badly against power games losing to berdych twice before while losing to del potro twice, sod twice and cilic in last year. The price should be a little shorter and i will give sod a go at prices.
Potential Profit £39.60

Bank now back to £1000

Friday's Bets

Sorry, i have been busy lately and have missed the tennis the last few days. I see joker was beat at big odds which could have been predicted given his poor game lately, his flaky mentality and the way melzer has been playing lately. Further soderling took federer apart which shouldn't be a huge surprise but it was a game in past years which he would have won. I believe there is not the same fear factor in playing fed now. He won many games in past years by other p=layers outplaying himbut having a much inferior mental game. Essentially fed is no longer viewed as the impossible obstacle by many of his competitors.

£16 on berdych to beat soderling
This is a game of the two form players this week. They have only dropped two sets between them, sod vs montanes and fed, showing the runs they have had. While i believe sod has the greater experience he is rightly fav i thought prices would be much closer. However, i believe following the defeat of fed we are gettiing a poor price on sod as i was expecting something around 1.65-1.7. They have played numerous times before with sod marginally ahead, with 1-1 on clay and berdy winning 6-2 6-2 in last game in miami. Berdy is having a real breakthrough and i have a feeling this might continue today. Berdy with small stakes in what will be a great match to watch with two similar power games going at it. Justy hope he doesn't freeze as if sod gets ahead, he's become a good frontrunner and could easily win in three.
Potential Profit £30.72

Monday's Bets

£80 on melzer at 1.41
Up late! Put this bet on last night. Melzer is currenty up a set but down a break in the 2nd. He is currently trading at 1.44, so i can't be accussed of cheating. I fancy him to edge through in what will inevitably be a tight affair.
Potential Profit £32.80

£50 on verdasco to beat almagro at 1.8
Verdy's had a great dirt ball season. He has a 3-0 h2h record over almagro winning every set. He done well to see off kohli last round and i will take him to get through any injuries to get the job done. He beat him in three here last year and i believe he is on better form this year, as admittedly is almagro, and i believe he will find a way to get the job done.
Potential Profit £40

Sunday's Bets

After today i feel sick. Ferrero fought back from 2 sets down to 2-2 and a break up but lost it. Three defeats and the weeks profit has almost venished. There is reasoning for my three bets but not in the mood to talk much after today.

£88 on soderling at 1.4 to beat cilic
Potential Profit £35.20

£47.24 on Berdych to beat murray at 2.48
Potential Profit £68.97

£52 on tsonga at 2.1 to beat youz
Potential Profit £57.20

Saturdays extra

£68 on ferrero at 1.45 to beat genepri at 5-6 on serve.
Only a quick post. King should still see it through!
Potential Profit £30

Saturday's Bet

£120 on Roddick at 1.24
Roddick has not been convincing as of yet on his run here. He took five sets to beat niemo and was broken about five times in his rd 2 encounter. Despite this he has done enough to win. Here he faces gabashvilli who like himself has been luck with his draw. This is the furthest gabash has been in a gs and i believe it is a step too far. He rarely beats top 20 players and playing roddick at 8 in the rankings even on his worst surface is without doubt a tough draw. I will take Roddick for the third and last time in this tournament.
Potential Profit £25.20

£25 on Ljubo to beat bellucci at 2.36

Both players had tough 5 setters yesterday. Bellucci struggled badly against andujar and done well to see it through, as did ljubo against fish, who was 15-30 serving to stay in the match. Ljubo is a good operator and proved at IW that he is capable of beating anyone on his day. Further his serve is even more effective on clay backed up by the stat he has held his serve 90% of time this tourni. This will be a tight game with few breaks of serve likely. I will take grandpa at odds against over bellucci, who is still learning his trade at this level. This is the furthest he has been in a gs so there will be nerves ther. I will take the experienced croat.

Potential Profit £34

Friday update

After the wins and fish's loss 10-8 in the last after being 2-1 up in sets, the bank lies at £1311.24. Am thinking of ljubo, depending how high his price can go and roddick for tomorrow with berdych for sunday.

Friday's Bets

£56 on tsonga to beat de bakker at 1.51
This is a rematch of a few weeks ago in Barcelona qf where the young underdog came out on top in three sets. This is a whole different match. This is a game over 5 sets in tsonga's home country. This is enough in my opinion to swing the match in tsonga's favour. It took del potro to beat jwt last year and i believe it will take a very good player this year too. While de bakker is very talented and has the potential to be at least a top 10er, i believe his inexperience will tell today. This is his first time beyond the 1st rd of any slam and the fact he plays the french's only real chance, now monfils is out makes it a real tough one. I will take tsonga to gain revenge in what should be a quite close game.
Potential Profit £28.56

This will do me for the time being. Might be back later with a swing of the mind. I have also added £4.24 on fish as i can't understand how he can be the same price at 1 set all as he was at the start of play. Bank now £820, with fish, melzer and ferrero still to be settled.

Thursday's Final Bet

£200 on Roddick at 1.13
Roddick will be rubbing his hands together seeing his draw until he potentially meets the wily old dog ferrer in rd 4. This will be defending the 4th rd he had last year and he must beat kavcic and gabashvilli or zemlja to do that-very achievable. He will be glad of the extra game time that he was given by nieminen, who pushed him to the limit, following having no clay games this season. He somehow got the job done against niemo who at patches showed signs of his old self, playing some great stuff, hitting many great winners. Roddick never gets the credit he deserves on clay, as he is never going to beat the best on clay but he is usually consistent enough beating what he should, highlighted by a 66% record on clay since 2000.
Kavcic in his second gs proper, following his r1 defeat at aus10 to odesnik. He is extremely inexperienced on the dirt and despite beating a poorly conditioned schwank, i can't see him take out roddick over 5 sets at a gs. Even at this price on the dirt ill take roddick.
Potential Profit £26

Bank now at a lowly £120

Thursday's Bets

£20 on Fish to beat Ljubicic at 3.15
While out of the two ljubo is the better clay courter imo and when i first say ljubi at above 1.6 i was considering backing him, i will take fish at above 2/1. Since ljubo won indian wells, he has struggled with injury, withdrawing from Rome and Estoril with a side strain and retiring when a set up against becker in miami with a back injury. This is clearly not good prep for rg, where his trainingwas clearly interrupted. Further, his interview following lu victory gave the impression that he is still stryggling with injuries. On the other side we have fish who seems to be injured all over. He is however battle hardened. Following his tough 3rd set tb defeat to dolgo, he was a ll and took advantage beating russell and pushing melzer 3 sets. He beat berrer in 5 sets and these close games will have him well prepared to take out ljubo.
Potential Profit £43

£160 on Melzer to beat Mahut at 1.19
As much as i would like to see mahut win i just can't see it. After all the postive energy in his comfortable 3 set wins i simply can't see him following it up here. He had not won a 1st rd match at rg (before zverev) since 2000. His powerful serve game is simply not aided by the clay at rg even with the fans behind him. This will be more so witgh the clay getting wet and slowing the court up even more. Further, he has been playing mainly on the ch circuit and this is a big step up considering it is his least favoured surface. Melzer on the other hand, has had a good clay court campaign being his usual consistent self on the stuff, beating everyone he should, apart from petz at mc, having a god run to qf at Madrid. Further, he matches up very well to big servers as he gets many returns deep, and he likes a target, which he may get with mahut net rushing. All in all a confident pick.
Potential Profit £30.40

£180 on ferrero at 1.16
The king of clay is enjoying a great renaissance. He has had a great sa and euro clay court season and at his age it could be his last season at the very top. He is on a roll at his real home and i can't see the talented but greatly inexperienced riba beat him at rg this year. Riba is a dirt baller still learning his trade, playing mostly at ch level. This is the first gs he has qualified for and he beat gicquel in his first ever gs rd 1 match. He has already had a decent tournament and although he has nothing to lose i can;t see him beat his country man, who he would have idolised when he was growing up, over 5 sets at rg. Long live the King!
Potential Profit £28.80

The bank is currently £320 with all yesteday's matches in play with isner with a lot of work to do at a set down and murray and baggy 1-0 and 2-1 up in sets respectively. Hate doing so many short odds but this a gs where favs are usually more reliable and i am still using reasoning and thought behind bets. Wish me luck with so much of the bank tied up.

Craziness

£236 on Murray to beat Chela at 1.12
Same bet as a few weeks ago. Essentailly chela is weaponless and especially over 5 sets just can't see him beat murray. Murray will have good confidence after mon and there is no way chela can beat him now even on clay over 5 sets. Look at result from last years RG and you see all you need to know. Very Confident. Murray needst really look at himself if he loses this!
Potential Profit £28.32

Wednesday's Extra's

£30 on Benneteau at 2.26
The home dog against the inexperienced but talented argie. It will inevitably be close but i will take the french on home clay which will slow down mayer's power game. Mayer has been on great form, but in what will in evitably be a tight match i will go for the experienced home dog at odds against.
Potential Profit £37.80

£118 on Isner at 1.25
Chui is poor on the clay with a career record below 40%. Isner has proved his versatility thios year on all surfaces, pushing joker 5 sets on dirt among other impressive clay results. I will take isner even at short odds to take Chui out. Further, chui has played 5 sets on mon which will also play into isner's hands.
Potential Profit £29.50

Wednesday's Start

£83.20 on baghdatis to beat granollers at 1.4

Baggy has shown a much improved level on the clay this yaer, proving to be able and quite consistent over the last weeks. He is 7-3 for his last 10 matches with his five defeats in clay in total coming against cilic, ferrer, gulbis, montanes and mayer. Ferrer and montanes are consistent dirtballers, while the other three are aggressive attacking players who baggy struggles against as a match up as the pace of their groundstrokes troubles his poor movement. This is not a problem he will face with granollers. Even though granollers is spanish he is not a natural clay courter imo, highlighted by his results at rg - beat in qualies 07, 2nd rd 08 and 1st rd 09. He is inexperienced at this level shown by 6-11 at grand slams outside qs, never making it past r2 anywhere. Baggy should win this given his experience, despite his clay shortcomings, as granollers is not a player who he matches up poorly to. Baggy to get the job done.

Potential Profit £33.20

Was thinking isner but a little short...will sleep on it!

Bank £1076 following roddick's struggle and three other comfortable wins....yeh ok prices were very short!

Am I Insane?

Two more crazy selections for the day.

£200 on Melzer to beat sela at 1.15
I hate betting on melzer as such a heavy fav but this is one i believe is a good chance. Melzer has had a good clay court season proved by firstly pushing verdasco to the limit and losing from a seta nd a break up before taking advantage of nando tiring the next time as he outplayed him in two. He is 6-4 on clay this season only losing to almagro, verdy, wawa and petzchner. The only poor loss there is petz, which was his first clay tourni at arguably the slowest clay court and his game has seen good improvement since then, so we can look by that. He is a respectable 55% record on the clay in his career highlighting his decent consistency. Further melzer has point to defend following his third rd effort last year.

Sela on the other hand hates the stuff with his orthodox game not matching up well to the dirt at all. He is 21-34 at 38% career long with almost all his victories coming at ch level. He is 2-10 since french 08, with his only victories against levine on houstons green clay and No 225 Jean-Renne Lisnard at rg 2009 highlighting his struggles. The fact his only outings this year on clay have been mexico in feb, Davis cup in march and houston 's quick clay in april highlight his hatred. He will be looking to the grass season where he will perform better and has points to defend at wimbledon following his run to 4th rd last year. If melzer loses here he really needs to look where he is going.
Potential Profit £30

£130.40 on starace at 1.21 to beat marchenko
The difference here is starace is a natural dirt baller, and this is where he makes his money,wherereas marchenko prefers much quiker terrain. Starace showed good form last week beating monfils, kubot and darcis before falling to home fav and eventual winner gasquet in two tbs. Marchenko on the other hand is very inexperienced on dirt, disliking it, highlighted by a poor 15-25 record on it, with most winners coming at ch level. He is 3-7 last 10 on clay with two of his wins in qualies at nice and the other in a ch 1st rd, highlighting his struggles. He is simply not good enough or experienced enough on dirt to beat starace imo. Even at low price will give it a go.
Potential Profit £27.38

Bank now lowly £488!

Tuesday's Early Selections

100 on Roddick at 1.29 av
Roddick has a consistent record on clay, despite it being by far his worst surface, winnning over 65% of games on the dirt. Nemo is a fading player now, whose best seems to be behind him now. Although he has a good past record at rg i find it hard to see him beat roddick, even on clay over 5 sets. Roddick's game has more consistency this year which should bode well for clay, and i can see an improvement at rg this year, where i believe it will take a good player to beat him. He should view this tourni as a good chance to win a few games and have good form for Queens. As a final note roddick is 63-14 vs left handers.
Potential Profit £29

£132 on ferrero to beat cuevas at 1.22
Ferrero has a great rg record, 31-9, and has shown great form on the dirt this year in both the sa and european swing. He is getting towards the end of hus career and it is unlikely that he will see such a rich vein again. It has been a few years since he had a real good run here. He has had a break lately and should be well rested to hopefully have a run similar that he had at the early 2000's, Cuevas on the other hand has been poor this year, having injury struggles as well as form and i can only see a rested jcf get the job done. Hopefully we can see the original king of clay this year.
Potential Profit £28.16

Bank sits at £818.40 after a quite good day today that would have been much better if i had stuck to original selections. May be back with additional selections.

Additional Selections

£50 on Robredo in-play *2-2 at 1.66

Robredo is an experienced campaigner. His fav surface is arguably clay. He has a 30-10 record since 2000 at rg, making the quarters last year, before being defeated by jmdp. He has always made it to at least r16 since he first qualified in 01, making the qtrs four times. Troicki on the other hand, while improving, in his four appearances here he has not made it from qualies twice, beat in 1st rd and made second rd last year beating kubot in 5 sets. It is clear that robredo has the experienece. Further, he has won two recent meetings, 3 easy sets at last yrs aus open and on clay a few weeks ago, making a 5-0 sets h2h. The only question mark is robredo's health, the reason for the inflated price, which he has stressed is fine following his withdrawal a number of weeks ago, not playing since which is a worry. If robredo is fit, he will be motivated and i can only see one outcome. At the price i am prepared to take the risk, but for less bank.

Potential Profit £33

£20 on Gasquet at 2.8

After considering many alternatives - murray, murray 3-2 and lay 3 sets, have decided to give gasman a go. You really have to question murray's attitude in recent weeks. Watching him when i backed him vs ferrer, his body language was applalling. He was so moody and quite simply out-thought by the wily ferrer. This is, however a completely different match-up for him. Gasquet in my opinion is a better clay court player than murray for pure talent but mentally he can fall to pieces and for this reason he is not among the elite. The home crowd can also work to his disadvantage if he falters due to his fragile mindset.

However, i will give him a go, despite his injury worries, and i believe he will come flying out of the traps with the crowd behind him. This will not be the case the whole match but i think if the crowd is a positive factor it could frustrate murray whose confidence on the dirt atm is very low. Gasquet will have the close match over verdy in his head and i believe his extra class will see him through. I think if gasquet wins it will have to be before 5 sets due to his poor record at 5 setters and his flaky nature. At the odds worth a small investment.

Potential Profit £35.60

£50 on Fish to win at av odds of 1.81

Fish has proved by some of his results in the past that he is a decent player on the dirt. He pushed jurgen melzer hard a couple of weeks ago in a atch up that suited melzer. Fish's main problem when playing on clay is his movement. This is grealy exposed by those playing a natural clay court game. He will not face this today in berrer, whose game is more suited to the faster hard courts or indoor hard. His victory of a poorly conditioned monaco aside he is not a player with much pedigree on dirt, and i rate fish's game higher on the clay. This could be another close one, with fish's extra experience of the bigger game carrying him through.

Potential Profit £40.50

£100 on isner at 1.32

This is a game in which both players would prefer to be playing on faster surfaces. Isner has proved in recent weeks that he can win games on clay, proving that his experience of pushing joker to five sets on the dirt was not a fluke. Golubev is a player who i believe is happiest on indoor hard or fast hard courts. He is still inexperienced on dirt and i believe isner will prove he only pulled out of dusseldorf as precaution and will have too much for an inexperienced golubev.

Potential Profit £32

£60 on bellucci at 1.57

Bellucci is a player, who depite letting me down lately, that i rate highly. He is a player for all surfaces but still has the most experience on clay courts. If he can get llodra's serve back, as he did isner a number of weeks back, into play on regular occassions today he will have more than enough to win the match. To win today llodra will have to keep the rallies short as it is hard to see him win many of the longer ones. I believe bellucci's top spin forehand will cause llodra's bh many problems as the extra bounce will force llodra to hit the ball from further back in the court, forcing more errors. I believe bellucci will be glad of the time off following his defeat last week and the extra time to prepare will help him navigate the tough task of defeating the home dog. Despite this being a home venue of llodra's he has never shinned here, showing that despite having the support his game is more for the faster surfaces, due to his big serve and net rushing game, which he will hopefully have time to prepare for in the coming weeks with defeat here.

Potential Profit £34.20

Was thinking of a few others but think i will keep my powder dry. I have backed ferrero and roddick (for tomorrow) early, as i did fish as i believe their price may drop. I will do write ups tomorrow. Might be back later with additional selections. Wish me luck.

Experience Counts

There we go he first week of the french open gs and i am back to original bank of £1000. Silly week last week getting so involved week before a major but at least it wasn't fatal. Hopefully for more successful weeks in the future.

£35 on Massu to beat Fognini at 2.28

Fognini is on simply woeful form. He as been very out of sorts, losing eight of last 9, against massu who rarely surfaces to play the bigger events now, mainly making his money through challenger events. Fognini is still very inexperienced over 5 sets, having won only two matches at gs level, with one coming through retirement. Massu has shown in DC affairs that he is capable of raising his game and he has usually shown a little form at rg, losing in the first round twice out of 8 times. With a match up so bereft of any confidence or form, i'll take the experience with a bit of a track record at odds against.

Potential Profit £44.10


£40 on Chuidinelli to beat devvarman at 2.08

Another poor game with two players on their lesser favourite surfaces. In this instance i am going against the man who is through the playoffs. I believe that while chui has a woeful clay record, winning only 38% of matches on the stuff, i believe he has shown a bit of form lately in beating fognini and taking a set from monfils. However, it must be remembered that devvarman only has a 54% record (14-12) with most his wins coming in qualies which chuid's ranking has frequently got him to miss. I believe chuidinelli has the exdperience which can never be underestimated at a gs and i will take him at odds against to beat the admittedly on form qualifier.

Potential Profit £43.20

There we have it, two dodgy selections. Had considered ggl and de bakker but for value and injury questions respectively quickly moved on. I think that should be me for the day on a tough enough day for punting. Wouldn't be too surprised to see either match go 5 sets.

Bank now stands at £925

Additional Thursday Selection

£60 on Monfils to beat Starace at 1.58

I'm sorry but this is one i can't resist. I know monfils was simply woeful yesterday but he is simply of a higher standard to starace. I know he may have personal problems but i believe after that performance yesterday he will be looking to seriously improve with rg. I know there is the arguement that he has had his prep and will be happy to move onto rg now.

I am completely against this. Monfils has proved very consistent as a favourite on clay in the past years. As well as this, he always performs well in france. I believe this will continue today as he will come back to form. As poor as he was yesterday, he found a way to get through it and won the last two sets with comfort, which bodes well. The fact he is in france will have him motivated and above 1.5 i'll give it a go, as i thought the price would be around 1.4.

Potential Profit £34.80

Bank lies at £1000

Thurday's fight

£30 on hewitt vs almagro at 3

Hewitt looked very composed against big serving john isner at the start of the week, comfortably taking advantage of an understrength big man. He is always motivated when playing for his country as it seems all matches he's involved in. Today he faces nicolas almagro who was beat in three by berdych and beat ginepri in a third set tb, following his sf at madrid He has looked agitated all week in his body language and looks like a man who doesn't want to be there. Hewitt is a good returner which will weaken his weapon in the serve and i see almagro getting frustrated in what will inevitably be a tight match, and his back of the court groundstrokes could see errors as his frustration grows. I'll give hewitt a go as i can trus his motivation against a man surely tiring who may be looking towards rg.

Potential Profit £60

Another Tank

Well played Mayer. Much better player. Another clear tank in the 2nd set showing how dodgy it is to bet the week before the slam, especially on favourites. Still though, well played mayer on a good performance showing bellucci should never have been 1.4 pre match. Another poor selection and i think i might give it a break until french. Disappointing

Wednesday's Starter

£99.80 on bellucci to beat mayer at 1.41

This is a bet i tried to talk myself out of this morning as mayer is a player of potential that i rate and bellucci threw in a stinker last week vs monaco and his motivation here could be questionable. For a start bellucci was coming off a davis cup flight from brazil the weekend before and the jetlag possibly caught up with him. Further i think a match up with pace, such as vs mayer, is more in bellucci's favour than the match up vs monaco, a good defender where bellucci will have to create his own pace.

Also, bellucci has had a consistent clay court season in europe after a great sa swing. He is 6-4, only losing to players it is acceptable to lose to, novak, ferrer, monaco and kohli (3rd set tb). Despite mayer being a south american, i believe he is more comfortable on faster hard courts, making his power game more effective. Further, he comes into the match with some question marks. He withdrew from doubles due to an elbow injury in belgrade before retiring against wawa due to shoulder and elbow injuries in madrid. He only scrapped past guez in the last round and will seriously have to up his game to beat bellucci

Mayer also seems to have his struggles against left handers. He is 3-7 for his last ten, beating del bonnis, out of form zverev and berrer at a challenger, losing to dabul, zverev and ball among other. His career record lies at 17-18 highlighting his struggles. Further, bellucci holds a 2-1 h2h winning the most recent two. He was in control of the most recent encounter on clay before losing his concentration and inexplicably losing the second before winning the third 6-1. I watched the match and thought bellucci matched up quite well vs mayer and if he is motivated, keeps his concentration and plays to a decent level, he should beat mayer, who struggled past guez in r1. Bellucci has won his last 16 between 1.2 and 1.5, highlighting his consistency when favoured recently.

Potential Profit £40.90

Bank now 1090

Lay Kohli 1.17 for £50

Zeba looking stronger now at 1-0 *2-3 against.

Total Cost £8.50

OH NO!

Seppi completely woeful. Terrible betting on him as a heavy fav as he has proved once again this year what an inconsistent performer he really is. Bad bet and will do well getting out of this day with a small but insignificant loss. Funny, seppi is a player who always hopelessly lets me down but i still end up backing him. Black list for some time now. Depressed here!

110 on serra at 1.32

Serra at playing this week in front of home fans should have too much for marchenko who despite being an improving player is very limited on clay. Serra on the other hand is handy on clay, plus with extra motivation of home fans should be enough to see him over the line.

Potential Profit £35.20


£96 on seppi at 1.42

Playing against another limited clay performer in stak. Seppi should view this tournament as a good chance to get some ranking points as many of his rivals' motivation has to be questionable. Seppi has won 14 of last 18 when favoured on clay, whereas stak has a win % of below 50% on the dirt. Seppi a higher class on the dirt and should shine through today.

Potential Profit £40.30


£25 on Dolgoplov to beat montanes at 3.1

Dolgo on good form last week wher he gunned down andres seppi easily before being beat by nadal quite respectably with the match relatively close. Monty is a player who can be very good or bad at 1st round matches. At a look at his recent results in 1st rounds he has lost to lorenzi and chardy, both players he should be beating. With the french around the corner he might have his mind elsewhere and against and up and coming player such as dolgo with his youthful exhuberance meaning he is unlikely to tank, this could prove fatal. Further, montanes looked to have an injury last week which he will further looking to protect for next week if it surfaces at all.

Potential Profit £52.50


£25 on Zeballos to beat Kohlschreiber at 3

Zeba looked really motivated the other day because as well as being proud of his homeland and this being a motivation, as i said a few days ago, he also knows the importance of this year for him. He must start moving up the rankings before it is too late. Today he faces kohli who was woeful the other day vs chardy. He looked like he was elsewhere and if this is the case today he will be embarassed again. Kohli performed well at rg last year, beating djoker, and will be looking to defend his ranking by a big performance again. His mind could be elsewhere and i will take the motivated zeba to take him out.

Potential Profit £50


There we go then. A day of four bets believe it or not. This is risky the week before a slam but i am confident of my selections motivation while questioning some of their opponents. Still, wish me luck.


Current Bank £980

Just a quick post. Been watching match berdy better player until poor tb. Only a small back. May look to green out at some stage. Its almagro leading 1-0 2-1* currently

Monday In Play

Lay Almagro 1.28 for £14 Liability

Potential Profit £50

Madrid Sunday

Must say that i believe it was a real even game and the match came down to who was better mentally and there was only one winner there. In total fed and nadal each won 50% of the points each but unfortunately nadal's 50% were the more important 1/2. Fed lost 4 bps at 5-4 first set and fell from 5-2 to 5-7 in the tb. If he had been stronger mentally he could easily have won as nadal was far from his brilliant best but ultimately done enough to win.

Bank remains at £1188.50.

Will be back tomorrow.

Sunday Update

Well there we go a relatively comfortable win for Heracio. He is now 25 and will have to kick on now as he doesn't have endless time left in his career. I believe Filip Krajinovic showed once again that he is a player of talent as he posses good ground strokes and a decent all round game, while also moving well. However, at this stage in his career he is inexperienced and lacks consistency, which should should improve in time. It remains to be seen how far up the rankings he can go. Zeballos played his break points faced very well which was the main difference today

This all means that i can sit back and enjoy today's game as there is guaranteed profit for the day (no matter how small!). Hopefully fed can show what a great player he is and get the job done. The bank is currently at £1188.50 with hopefully more to be added.

Sunday Pride

£90 on Zeballos against Krajinovic at 1.45

Betting on a tourni the week before a slam is not to be greatly recommended, so i will keep it in moderation for the week. I saw some of the match from a few weeks ago in serbia and believe it is an occassion where you have to say it is just your day as it was his week. From his first round vs Donskov where he won the second set on a tie break (after being on the brink of defeat) before coasting the deciding set. Then against zeballos he won 7-5 in the deciding 3rd set tb, before a poorly conditioned novak had to retire injured in the qtrs before he was finally found out in the semis against querrey.

He is a player still very inexperienced (as is zeb but to a much less degree) at this level and the fact this is not in front of his home fans is another factor as he is yet to impress at any other atp event. I believe zeb hasn't been at his best in the past months but if he loses this match he really will have to consider where his career is going. He will be motivated as he is representing his country and will be keen to overturn that embarassing loss as once is just about acceptable in serbia but a second away from serbia would be unnacceptable.

Potential Profit £40.50 before commission.

Bank now £1060

Sunday Bet

£30 on Federer to beat Nadal at 3.5

Normally I wouldn't even think about betting on Fed to beat Rafa on clay but the circumstances here are totally different as they were last year when fed got the job done. Firstly the court conditions are in firmly in Fed's favour, more so than any other clay court with the altitude making the ball fly in the air. Further the game will be played in the middle of the day which will only highten the speed of the ball through the air. This should make fed's service games much easier to rattle through as was the case for most of today and the last two sets yesterday.

We have seen at times this week that nadal is beatable on these pacier clay courts, if the right calibre of player with good tactics faces him, which has not really happened yet (although almagro did for a set). He was pushed hard today by almagro,losing the first set in which he dropped his serve 3 times. He will have to be much better on serve vs fed as the goat will be very hard to break with the conditions. I believe if fed must beat nadal tomorrow if he is to beat him in RG as these are courts much more in his favour. At the price i'll give it a go. Be good and the best of luck to anyone following my blog.

Potential Profit £75

New Bank £1150

Saturday Update

Watched most of the match last night and must say i was very frustrated with murray. His attitude and on court behaviour was appalling ( more so than usual) in great contast to the old dog ferrer, with his tactics poor also. He simply doesn't seem to have the same belief on this surface. I believe the game was there for him but he got a little passive on the big points. In fact when he went behind in both sets, we saw an improvement as he was taking more risks. His first serve % was also extremely poor also taking away his control in many points. There were some better signs but overall it was poor.

Moving onto today i see both ferrer and almagro putting it up to fed and rafa but hard to see anything other than a fed rafa final. Believe fed ferrer will be quite a bit closer but with a 10-0 h2h and his improving form I see fed as the likely winner. He is currently trading below 1.5 which i simply cannot etertain as ferrer has burnt me twice this week, he is eager and will be looking to continue his form in front of fans. I will keep an eye on things but i believe there will be no bets today.

Friday Bets

I'm back. Decent day with the most likely outcomes in my bets coming true. Only saw a little of monfils match and missed the other two. If anyone would like to give their opinions on how the games went are more than welcome. All games seemed relatively straight forward with fed's and ferrer's result more so. Missed the tennis today but with such short and long prices unlikely i would have been involved. One bet for the day, which will be unpopular.


£38.60 on muzza to beat ferrer at 2.48

Murray's game has looked to be getting back to where it should be. He has been striking the ball well better getting more weight and depth on the ball which will be imperative against ferrer's baseline game.

I watched his match vs ferrer a few of weeks ago and thought he was well in the match. His attitude was quite poor, however, and he didn't seem to believe and he lost many of the game changing points through poor tactics. He is hitting better now and the belief seems to be slowly coming back. Further the conditions are more in his favour this time with the courts faster and the altitude factor.

Ferrer has looked tired at times this tourament, against baggy mainly, (although he seemed to give cilic a decent beating...doh). Like verdy ( who i had also predicted would struggle this tourni) he has had a tough schedule and i think this could come to surface today. I will take a fresher murray to take him out at odds against. It will not be easy against a wily ferrer playing in his country on the dirt but i believe he has a good chance and is worth a little interest.

Potential Profit £57.10


Bank now stands at £1180.


Just to note for all the number crunchers, since i began on Sunday (the day before the blog started) and before today, i have placed 15 bets (counting karlo and 2-0 lay as seperate bets, counting the lay as 2.68 back for excel purposes). Out of the 15 bets, five have been odds against and ten odds on. Amazingly all odds on have won and all the odds against were beaten (hopefully the the first win to come tonight). The av price for the 15 has been 2.142 at an av stake of £72.30. The highest odd is 6 and lowest has been 1.23. The current proft is at £218.60, with a total cost of £1085.20 at a strike rate of 20.14375, which in all probabilty will only fall.

Think this is all accurate and any comments very welcome.

Thursday Update

This will be my last post until some time tomorrow. I will hopefully be back to bet on the later games. Tight day for the blog today, already regretting the monfils bet a little as it is a gamble on his mental state and fitness. Hopefully he approaches the game right and gets the job done.

Best of luck to all readers. Just a note to say i see cilic is at 150/1 for madrid on sportingbet and surely worth a few pennies e/w (Cue an easy straight sets victory for ferrer today) considering he's in the far side of the draw to nadal and with the courts being so fast he has a chance vs anyone-although hard to see him beat a fully fit and focused federer, but questionable we will see that. Unfortunately i have been restricted on there so can't get the pennies ready. Be back tomorrow with hopefully quite a larger bank.

Going to bed last night i left my three selections of gulbis, federer and monfils to be matched. Gulbis' was unmatched and he continues to trade around 1.33.

£71.10 on Monfils to beat GGL at 1.77

This is based on a feeling. I believe the good monfils will surface today. However, this is dodgy as monfils lacks the match practice and ggl is in the form of his life on his home courts. I just don't think ggl has the mentality to beat the top players when they are on form. With the french around the corner i will take monfils to up his game and have enough to get through this tough tie. The price is now rising (currently around 1.85...doh!) and he could seemingly go off at around the same price as ggl. Badly played.

Potential Profit £54.70


110 on Federer to beat wawa at an av of just above 1.48

Yes this is a masters and fed's motivation is questionable. But simarilily to monfils with french around the corner i believe he has the capacity to up his game. He was trading at 1.43 last night i put in a few backs at 1.47, 1.48 and 1.5. I couldn't believe it to see his price had at some stage went above 1.7. My feeling here is that the extra pace on these courts will really help feds game as it did last year. I was expecting a price closer to 1.3 so at the price thought he was worth a go.

I remember the meeting last year that wawa won when he caught fed on the hop. Don't get me wrong wawa was impressive but fed wasn't there mentally. Today fed will be expecting a tough test and knows that once again people are asking questions of him. I thoroughly expect him to up his game and win a quite possible tight game. Further, wawa has looked a little tired in last week and maybe his schedule could catch up with him.

Potential Profit £53.20


£35 on Cilic to beat ferrer at 2.8

On watching some of ferrer's match last night it was clear to see once again the fight that the wily campaigner has. In saying that at 1-1 4-2 40-0 baggy should have went for the throat. He looked beat at this point but following a few ue's from baggy you could see ferrer get his second wind and believe he was still there. When he broke for 4-3, he had gathered such momentum that it was clear he was the likely eventual winner as it seemed to take a bit out of baggy.

Looking to this match, i believe the pressure is once again fully on ferrer. Cilic is the real underdog, with not many expecting him to beat ferrer at this stage on a clay court. This could suit cilic as he can go out and play his game safe in the knowledge that if he loses no-one will pass much attention but if he wins it will be a huge result.

The reasoning behind this is that the courts aren't you're usual clay courts that ferrer loves grinding results out on. These are courts with much more pace and the altitude should help cilic's power game. Ferrer looked to be really struggling at times last night and done very well to see off the cypriot. He looks a little tired and the tough schedule since feb that has seen him perform excellantly on the sa and european clay looks to have taken its toll. Add to the that the tough slog that he had in seeing off marcos and you get the feeling it really could get to him. With cilic's power game and big serve, it will take a big effort from ferrer to see it through and at around 7/4 is worth a shot.

The h2h is 2-1 in ferrer's favour, with all games coming on the hard, showing what a tough match up this is for cilic as on cilic has the better game you would think. Overall, i will take the fresh player who looked in decent nick in munich and has seemed at home with the extra pace here.

Potential Pofit £63


Bank stands at £935

I have upped the stakes a little and it is clear the selections all have an element of guessing which player will turn up in them. This should be a tight day with all games looking close. Good luck all and this should be me for the day

Wednesday Analysis

Much improved from murray but still a lot of improvement needed. Chela played ok, making some nice shots but trying to force it a little as he knew he was simply up against a better player. Overall murray always seemed in control and even at a break down, it was hard to see chela win a set as his serve was always under threat with murray really attacking his second serve. In fact chela only won 45% of points on serve.

An unadventurous pick to be honest as i don't think there were too many (if anyone including chela) who thought chela could win today.

I didn't get to even follow much of bellucci's match but a very disappointing result as i believed conditions would favour him but maybe the trip to Brazil at the weekend along with his tough schedule in the last few weeks finally caught up with him.

A disappointing day today, down £8.90 but not too bad. Thought roddick was a good thing today but glad he didn't play as if he wasn't right mentally it would have been a tough game. That is me for the day.

Just to note, i mentioned earlier i thought tsonga might be a bet today. Since that there have been reports of an injury to jo and since that his price rose to over 1.8 before going back down around 1.5 to roughly where it started but he is currently trading around 1.65. Definately one to avoid.

Looking to tomorrow, some interesting match ups. Before any prices are up would be interested in gulbis, almagro, and maybe cilic (i know) or monfils, but all depending on price.

A final note to say seemingly I was right to doubt schwank yesterday after his terrible result today but wrong to put any faith in phm atm, he really is seemingly nowhere near his proper form. I did think about cilic today but had to avoid as he is yet to convince me on clay yet and below 1.4 it was far too big a risk.

Good luck to anyone reading!

Bank stands £1151.10

Current Bank £950

£165 on Murray to beat chela at 1.23

This is in no reaction to having a bad day. The more i look into this match the more i think how can chela possibly beat murray. Chela has been a fading force in the past few years and though he mainly only plays on the dirt i don't think he possesses the game or the hunger to beat a top 20 player any more, never mind a top 5 player. I watched him a few weeks back playing monaco and even from breaks up he never looked likely to win even a set.

Murray has had a woeful time since the aus open, which has obviously affected him. However, he will be looking to have some form before the french open and the extra pace at madrid will suit him.With hanescu in wait murray is likely to fancy his chances of having a decent run and getting back to winning games again and giving himself another go in all likelihood at david ferrer. I rarely bet under 1.3 but this is an exception as i can only see one winner.

Look at the RG meeting (and he won the three before so comfortably albiet not on clay but before he was a top 20 player back back in 06/7!) and you get the idea what i'm saying. I don't think chela has the weapons to take murray out.

Potential profit £37.90

Wednesday update

Sorry guys hectic day here. Think from now on i will pick my selections at the start of the day to avoid this.

£45 on Bellucci at 2.04 to win £46.80

Think with the conditions in his favour for his big serve should have enough to take out monaco. Question marks hang over the argentinian who has postponed surgery until after the french. Bellucci has shown better form on the clay with all three defeats coming against good players.

I have taken the young up and coming star but unfortunately monaco currently leads 4-1 in the first set, winning over 2/3 of the points so far, and bellucci is available at 3.75. Long way to go though and can see this going distance.

Potential profit £46.80

Bank 1045

45 on Bellucci at 2.04

Wednesday's Outlook

First and foremost i must say despite only having 2 followers and not recieving any comments the footfall for the site has been great with 322 pages read since i put up the counter yesterday. This has been a great response. Futher to the eight who ansered the poll i thank you and welcome anyone else to give their opinion positive or negative. Anyone to join as a follower or leave a comment greatly appreciated.


£70 on Roddick to beat Lopez at 1.67

I put four bets on waiting to be matched at big prices before I went to bed and this was the only one to get matched (although only some of it was and the rest was matched after i woke this morning as his price has seen a rise from the 1.6 it was this morning). First and foremost it is quite a risk taking roddick with no clay court action this year. At least he had doubles action to get used to the courts.

These are clay courts that both will enjoy due to the quick nature and the altitude and the fact that the game is played right in the middle of the day will only increase the pace. Having backed lopez to beat kubot, I was not overly impressed with him and believed the main reason for his win was the woeful performance from the pole who gifted him the breaks (lopez ridiculously giving two back in the second).

He looked uninsterested at times and if he performs in the same way he will struggle badly to break a-rod today. This year we have seen a more passive but more consistent roddick (with the exception vs nadal) and this consistency should help him defeat lopez today whose one handed bh was its useless self the other day, although the slice looked quite effective when used.

Roddick will be looking for some RG prep and so should be quite motivated as he would prefer a few games under his belt. He ran fed (eventual winner too) very close here last year, showing for a clay court that it is favourable for him. It is a game that we should see few breaks but i fancy roddick to stay cool under pressure and play the big points better, which will be vital. The same can't be said of lopez. Further, we could see tie-breaks today and roddick has a great record there.

He holds a 6-0 h2h and even if none have been on clay i believe the american is the bet at current prices. Only if we see the super lopez (which only appears a couple of times every year) can i see a focused and consistent roddick losing.

Potential profit £46.90

Bank now lies at £1090

I have looked at others including melzer, gulbis, bellucci, tsonga and monfils but i believe all to be a little shorter atm than i would back. Melzer was over 1.5 this morning which i would have been on but missed the price. Good luck to all and i should be back with further selections.

Tuesday Report

Karlovic played a decent match. The fact that he barely produced a a first serve in the tie break meant there were no free points in it for him, making it a much easier task for verdasco. Despite this he led 5-4 in the tb while he also had two break points at the end of the first set and could easily have snuck that set for a healthy profit no matter what way the rest of the match went. The point verdy played to lose the mini break at 4-2 in the tb was shocking and showed he was getting a little tight.

The fact that he moves likes a beach whale on clay and his bh is as poor as ever made it a tough test for Ivo. However, verdy while looking slightly rattled at stages in the first set kept his cool well and will be happy to have made it past this tough test. He looked motivated in front of his fans and could be hard to beat now he has navagated the test of Dr Ivo.

Balance remains at £1160.

Haven't looked much much into tomorrow but should be back with any bets tomorrow. Good luck to anyone reading.

Crazy Tuesday

To hell with it. Even though this is a night game i think the courts have been very fast for clay and there is no great sign of wind.

£15.40 on Ivo at 6 and £50 lay of verdy straight sets at 1.6 costing £30.

As mentioned earlier this game is all about verdy. If he approaches it properly and plays well he should win. He has been great on the dirt and if his form continues he should have enough. However I find verdy a very frustrating player as any time before he has seemed like stepping it up, there was a disappointment around the corner. Karlo's clay game is not as woeful as people think and he is a respectable 26-24 in last 50. Further this is one of the best clay courts for him. If karlo can serve well, and the conditions are in his favour, and reel off service holds, he will make verdy nervous and frustrated and hopefully can nick a tie break or two. The pressure is all on verdy and this may get to him as no one expects karlo to win today. To beat karlo you need patience and nerves, not verdy's main weapons. Further, karlo has a match under his belt to adjust to the surface and leads the h2h 3-1 (none on clay though) and all in all is worth a shot at the prices.

Potential profit £77.20 and £50 for the Lay

Bank lies at £1160

Tuesday update

Four relatively comfortable straight set wins in my four bets. Three in my advantage and mathieu against me. Bellucci and Gulbis both lose first service games, to make me a little uncomfortable but recover to win relatively well.

These courts look to be playing very fast for a clay court from what i've seen. Based on that was thinking of backing berdych or karlovic. First up nalby has had a big layoff and hard to know what he'll produce. Berdy's price seems on the fall which has put me off as if berdych had of been around 2.2 or more i would have probably backed him.

As for karlovic didn't think i'd ever back him against verdy on a clay court. This is one im considering a lot however given the conditions may be well in karlo's favour. Verdy looked v tired last time against ferrer and may be looking towards RG and karlo is not the man to face without full concentration. This is not a given, however, as he has been off for around ten days now and could enter the week looking to find more form for rg. I remember backing karlo against verdy at wimb 09 as he was on a good run. Verdy while looking to be playing some nice stuff and looking relatively comfortable, lost his composure and lost a few vital points gifting karlo the match in 4. Verdy seems stronger mentally now however, and i remember him out gunning isner, who had just been through a final set tb with roddick round before. in us open 09. He like gulbis seems to have found the form he promised and his run on the dirt has been remarkable. I will give it a think and if price goes much bigger than now (around 5.7) I have to give it a go. Further, verdy is 1.66 to lay in straight sets which is another option.

There we go, any views would be appreciated. I think im mad even contemplating ivo but i have a little feeling. Isner is another who should win. I was expecting lower than current 1.35 but after last week's tame finish can't entertain backing him, even though i do think he really should win.

For the reocrd the bank stands at £1205.40. I might be back later with either karlo or berdych. Good luck