Thursday's Bets

£20 on Fish to beat Ljubicic at 3.15
While out of the two ljubo is the better clay courter imo and when i first say ljubi at above 1.6 i was considering backing him, i will take fish at above 2/1. Since ljubo won indian wells, he has struggled with injury, withdrawing from Rome and Estoril with a side strain and retiring when a set up against becker in miami with a back injury. This is clearly not good prep for rg, where his trainingwas clearly interrupted. Further, his interview following lu victory gave the impression that he is still stryggling with injuries. On the other side we have fish who seems to be injured all over. He is however battle hardened. Following his tough 3rd set tb defeat to dolgo, he was a ll and took advantage beating russell and pushing melzer 3 sets. He beat berrer in 5 sets and these close games will have him well prepared to take out ljubo.
Potential Profit £43

£160 on Melzer to beat Mahut at 1.19
As much as i would like to see mahut win i just can't see it. After all the postive energy in his comfortable 3 set wins i simply can't see him following it up here. He had not won a 1st rd match at rg (before zverev) since 2000. His powerful serve game is simply not aided by the clay at rg even with the fans behind him. This will be more so witgh the clay getting wet and slowing the court up even more. Further, he has been playing mainly on the ch circuit and this is a big step up considering it is his least favoured surface. Melzer on the other hand, has had a good clay court campaign being his usual consistent self on the stuff, beating everyone he should, apart from petz at mc, having a god run to qf at Madrid. Further, he matches up very well to big servers as he gets many returns deep, and he likes a target, which he may get with mahut net rushing. All in all a confident pick.
Potential Profit £30.40

£180 on ferrero at 1.16
The king of clay is enjoying a great renaissance. He has had a great sa and euro clay court season and at his age it could be his last season at the very top. He is on a roll at his real home and i can't see the talented but greatly inexperienced riba beat him at rg this year. Riba is a dirt baller still learning his trade, playing mostly at ch level. This is the first gs he has qualified for and he beat gicquel in his first ever gs rd 1 match. He has already had a decent tournament and although he has nothing to lose i can;t see him beat his country man, who he would have idolised when he was growing up, over 5 sets at rg. Long live the King!
Potential Profit £28.80

The bank is currently £320 with all yesteday's matches in play with isner with a lot of work to do at a set down and murray and baggy 1-0 and 2-1 up in sets respectively. Hate doing so many short odds but this a gs where favs are usually more reliable and i am still using reasoning and thought behind bets. Wish me luck with so much of the bank tied up.