Thursday 13 May 2010

Going to bed last night i left my three selections of gulbis, federer and monfils to be matched. Gulbis' was unmatched and he continues to trade around 1.33.

£71.10 on Monfils to beat GGL at 1.77

This is based on a feeling. I believe the good monfils will surface today. However, this is dodgy as monfils lacks the match practice and ggl is in the form of his life on his home courts. I just don't think ggl has the mentality to beat the top players when they are on form. With the french around the corner i will take monfils to up his game and have enough to get through this tough tie. The price is now rising (currently around 1.85...doh!) and he could seemingly go off at around the same price as ggl. Badly played.

Potential Profit £54.70


110 on Federer to beat wawa at an av of just above 1.48

Yes this is a masters and fed's motivation is questionable. But simarilily to monfils with french around the corner i believe he has the capacity to up his game. He was trading at 1.43 last night i put in a few backs at 1.47, 1.48 and 1.5. I couldn't believe it to see his price had at some stage went above 1.7. My feeling here is that the extra pace on these courts will really help feds game as it did last year. I was expecting a price closer to 1.3 so at the price thought he was worth a go.

I remember the meeting last year that wawa won when he caught fed on the hop. Don't get me wrong wawa was impressive but fed wasn't there mentally. Today fed will be expecting a tough test and knows that once again people are asking questions of him. I thoroughly expect him to up his game and win a quite possible tight game. Further, wawa has looked a little tired in last week and maybe his schedule could catch up with him.

Potential Profit £53.20


£35 on Cilic to beat ferrer at 2.8

On watching some of ferrer's match last night it was clear to see once again the fight that the wily campaigner has. In saying that at 1-1 4-2 40-0 baggy should have went for the throat. He looked beat at this point but following a few ue's from baggy you could see ferrer get his second wind and believe he was still there. When he broke for 4-3, he had gathered such momentum that it was clear he was the likely eventual winner as it seemed to take a bit out of baggy.

Looking to this match, i believe the pressure is once again fully on ferrer. Cilic is the real underdog, with not many expecting him to beat ferrer at this stage on a clay court. This could suit cilic as he can go out and play his game safe in the knowledge that if he loses no-one will pass much attention but if he wins it will be a huge result.

The reasoning behind this is that the courts aren't you're usual clay courts that ferrer loves grinding results out on. These are courts with much more pace and the altitude should help cilic's power game. Ferrer looked to be really struggling at times last night and done very well to see off the cypriot. He looks a little tired and the tough schedule since feb that has seen him perform excellantly on the sa and european clay looks to have taken its toll. Add to the that the tough slog that he had in seeing off marcos and you get the feeling it really could get to him. With cilic's power game and big serve, it will take a big effort from ferrer to see it through and at around 7/4 is worth a shot.

The h2h is 2-1 in ferrer's favour, with all games coming on the hard, showing what a tough match up this is for cilic as on cilic has the better game you would think. Overall, i will take the fresh player who looked in decent nick in munich and has seemed at home with the extra pace here.

Potential Pofit £63


Bank stands at £935

I have upped the stakes a little and it is clear the selections all have an element of guessing which player will turn up in them. This should be a tight day with all games looking close. Good luck all and this should be me for the day

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