Saturday, 8 January 2011

Sunday's Best

£41.75 on Andy Roddick to beat Robin Soderling at 2.48
Soderling has a lot on the line with a potential 4th seed spot at the aus open if he wins. Despite this I believe Roddick is in good shape for the upset. He has had a very comfortale tourni until meeting anderson where he came through a stiffer test. This was the perfect prep for sod where he faced a big server and was pushed hard for the win. Soderling hasn't had that type of game with that type of pressure being appled yet which is an advantage for andy. Roddick seems to have done a lot of tough off-season work which looks to have put him in great condition for the year ahead. Worth a go at the odds, especially given soderling's poor record down under!
Potential Profit £61.79

Bank now lies at £1130 after wawrinka's top performance.

Saturday's Bets

£25 on wawrinka to beat Berdych at 3.6
Said i wouldn't get involved in this match but the pre-match drift on wawa makes the price ridiculous. Berdych only leads th h2h 4-3 with wawa winning the most recent encounter. Encounters always tight and although wawa didn't finish until late last night I have no reason to believe he can't run berdych very close again. Berdych yet to be tested here.
Potential Profit £65

19.35 on Davydenko to beat Federer at 4.7
Davy beat fed here quite comfortably last year and I believe when he is as hot as he is now can definately beat fed on a hard court over three sets, despite the h2h. Getting those first wins over fed was big for davy and he now knows he can beat him and what it takes. Much tighter than odds suggest but im nowhere near as confident as against nadal!
Potential Profit £71.60

now lies at £1085 after a great day yesterday.

Thursday, 6 January 2011

Fridays Bets

£75 on stepanek to beat f. mayer at 1.7
Stepanek good form here, being a past champion and finalist. Showed good form vs fish and should have too much for mayer today.
Potential Profit £52.50

£60 on Tipsarevic at 1.72 to beat Nishikori
Nishikori should have been beat yesterday bar the implosion of falla. A set and double break up falla had the match in his hands but choked it away. Tipsa seems to be hitting one of his red-hot patches and I believe he will grind kei down today. Tipsa is entering the stage of his career where it is time to produce and I believe he is more focused than in past.
Potential Profit £43.20

£30 on Davydenko to beat Nadal at 3.45
Davy showed good form and patience beating karlo in two non-tb sets yday. He waited his chances and took them expertly when they came. He faces an all together different task today in nadal. Unbelievably he has a 5-4 winning record over rafa, with a 5-0 h2h on hard courts. He has won the last three meetings (albiet rafa not at full strength) with the most recent coming here last year. I believe davy is coming back into his best form and if he produces he can be very competitive. At times yesterday gulbis showed nadal's slight weaknesses and hopefully today davy will be more ruthless in finishing off his chances. Davy makes it uncomfortable for rafa as he takes the ball early and puts him under quick pressure. At 3.45 he is worth a go.
Potential Profit £72

£10 on Blaz Kavcic to beat Berdych at 8.8
This is a bet depending on Berdych. He has been prone to lapses in concentration and losing to players he shouldn't. If he enters the match with a poor attitude, kavcic is good enough to take advantage, as he has shown this week he is quite capable with decent scalps of chardy and kendrick. It's a long shot but worth a go!
Potential Profit £78

Bank lies at £803.50

Thursday's Final Bet

Have to fell blessed with Kevin Anderson pulling through from a set and a break down, on his way to a victory, despite losing an early break in the third too. He lost his serve four times and if i had heard this stat before the match i would have been sure he lost. Anyway one last bet for the day.

£25 on Falla at 3.25 to beat Nishikori
Nishikori showed great form and resolve in his comeback victory over Cilic. However, I believe despite the slow courts the bookies have went overboard in their prices here. A large surge in betting for Nishikori has driven Falla's price up. I am still not convinced over Nishikori mentally or physically at this level. He has struggled tremendously with injuries and has consistently struggled to follow a good win up with another. When he defeated cilic at us10, he meekly followed it up with a second set retirement against montanes. I believe he has great potential and will be a great player in the future but i can't have him as such a strong fav against falla, at this stage in his career even with the 2-0 h2h.
Potential Profit £57.50

I have also staked £75 on Stepanek (as I believe this price may fall)at 1.7 for tomorrow but will do that write up later.

Bank lies at £911.75 (with £150 still on bets)

Thursday's Upsets

£25 on karlovic to beat davydenko at 3.6
Despite the 5-1 h2h in davy's favour i believe ivo has a great chance in this one. He pushed davy very had here last year (where davy went on to win the title beating both fed and nadal), losing in two close tbs (7-4 and 9-7). He was in much better form last year and i believe this is a tough match-up for davy when he is not in form as it is hard for him to find rythm, and he can lose focus easier.
Potential Profit £65

£25 on Gulbis at 4 to beat nadal
Despite Nadal leading the h2h 3-0, he has dropped a set in each of those three matches. The most recent was in Rome where Nadal was flying and Gulbis proved to be the only player to take a set off nadal during that euro swing. Nadal comes into this game, however, following a tough three setter aginst lacko, where he was surprisingly bagelled in the second. Talk of a virus has went someway to explain the abject performance. Whatever the issue, he is clearly not in the best of shape to face ernests, who always seems to lift his game against the best. This is a huge game for Gulbis who at the age of 22, needs to really push on in his career. I expect this to be tight and will take gulbis at a generous price given the circumstances.
Potential Profit £75

Bank now lies at £850

Wednesday, 5 January 2011

New Beginning

£100 on Kevin Anderson at 1.65
Both players have shown good form to progress so far, with giraldo defeating giles simon and benjamin becker in impressive fassion. Despite this he faces a big battle against the huge serving anderson. I still believe giraldo is a little inexperienced and eratic at this level, which will be his undoing in this match in my opinion. I can see him getting frustrated and making too many unforced errors. I am very pleased with the odds here and have placed a bigger than usual stake, hoping to get offto a great start!
Potential Profit £65
New Bank £900.

There will be more bets to follow later!

New Beginning

I intend to start this blog again in time for the new season. I enjoyed the experience last time but found it too hard to keep going due to other commitments. I will once again start with a bank of £1000 and see where it leads me. To anyone following good luck!

New Bank £1000

Saturday, 31 July 2010

Late US Bet

£40 on Blake to beat Lopez at 1.82

Blake comin back to form slowly. Likes the American swing where lopez has a decent record at best. Will take blake at small stakes until he gets more game time.

Potential Profit £32.80

Friday, 30 July 2010

Late Friday

£80 on Tipsarevic at 2.64 to beat baghdatis
Potential profit £132.80

Friday's Bets

£60 on Davydenko to beat Chela at 2.36 at +1-3 +0-30
Although this is one of the slowest clay courts arond, i believe chela lacks the mentality and weapons these days to beat the best no matter the court. Davy has winners points to defend and should have enough to overcome the argie.
Potential Profit £81.60