Thursday's Bet

£100 on melzer at 1.48

Very wary backing against the home dog, after previous disappointments on the first day, especially against a player with debatable motivation following a great performance at rg, making the semi-final. Zverev has had a terrible season (retiring twice in a row before rg), especially since marseille and will be glad to be on the faster surfaces again.

Looking to the match-up, first up two big servers with quite similar games, who like net-rushing are up against each other. Zverev's game is well suited to grass with his serve and volley game. This exactly the match up melzer loves. He has a great record against big servers (appart from roddick) mainly from keeping returns very deep, putting much pressure on the servers. Further melzer likes a target which is perfect for this match.

Also, zverev seems to struggle against big servers shown by a 35% career record accoring to tennisinsight losing 11 of last 12, with only 1 of last 10 games against a top 70 player. Lastly zverev has a terrible record against lefties with a 38% career record, losing the last 7 with all players outside top 50 and and four 100 or higher. Melzer on the other hand has a decent record vs lefties mirroring his career record against all players.

All in all it points to a melzer victory if he is up for it. I will take the gamble on his state of mind.

Potential Profit £48