Am I Insane?

Two more crazy selections for the day.

£200 on Melzer to beat sela at 1.15
I hate betting on melzer as such a heavy fav but this is one i believe is a good chance. Melzer has had a good clay court season proved by firstly pushing verdasco to the limit and losing from a seta nd a break up before taking advantage of nando tiring the next time as he outplayed him in two. He is 6-4 on clay this season only losing to almagro, verdy, wawa and petzchner. The only poor loss there is petz, which was his first clay tourni at arguably the slowest clay court and his game has seen good improvement since then, so we can look by that. He is a respectable 55% record on the clay in his career highlighting his decent consistency. Further melzer has point to defend following his third rd effort last year.

Sela on the other hand hates the stuff with his orthodox game not matching up well to the dirt at all. He is 21-34 at 38% career long with almost all his victories coming at ch level. He is 2-10 since french 08, with his only victories against levine on houstons green clay and No 225 Jean-Renne Lisnard at rg 2009 highlighting his struggles. The fact his only outings this year on clay have been mexico in feb, Davis cup in march and houston 's quick clay in april highlight his hatred. He will be looking to the grass season where he will perform better and has points to defend at wimbledon following his run to 4th rd last year. If melzer loses here he really needs to look where he is going.
Potential Profit £30

£130.40 on starace at 1.21 to beat marchenko
The difference here is starace is a natural dirt baller, and this is where he makes his money,wherereas marchenko prefers much quiker terrain. Starace showed good form last week beating monfils, kubot and darcis before falling to home fav and eventual winner gasquet in two tbs. Marchenko on the other hand is very inexperienced on dirt, disliking it, highlighted by a poor 15-25 record on it, with most winners coming at ch level. He is 3-7 last 10 on clay with two of his wins in qualies at nice and the other in a ch 1st rd, highlighting his struggles. He is simply not good enough or experienced enough on dirt to beat starace imo. Even at low price will give it a go.
Potential Profit £27.38

Bank now lowly £488!