Robredo is an experienced campaigner. His fav surface is arguably clay. He has a 30-10 record since 2000 at rg, making the quarters last year, before being defeated by jmdp. He has always made it to at least r16 since he first qualified in 01, making the qtrs four times. Troicki on the other hand, while improving, in his four appearances here he has not made it from qualies twice, beat in 1st rd and made second rd last year beating kubot in 5 sets. It is clear that robredo has the experienece. Further, he has won two recent meetings, 3 easy sets at last yrs aus open and on clay a few weeks ago, making a 5-0 sets h2h. The only question mark is robredo's health, the reason for the inflated price, which he has stressed is fine following his withdrawal a number of weeks ago, not playing since which is a worry. If robredo is fit, he will be motivated and i can only see one outcome. At the price i am prepared to take the risk, but for less bank.
Potential Profit £33
£20 on Gasquet at 2.8
After considering many alternatives - murray, murray 3-2 and lay 3 sets, have decided to give gasman a go. You really have to question murray's attitude in recent weeks. Watching him when i backed him vs ferrer, his body language was applalling. He was so moody and quite simply out-thought by the wily ferrer. This is, however a completely different match-up for him. Gasquet in my opinion is a better clay court player than murray for pure talent but mentally he can fall to pieces and for this reason he is not among the elite. The home crowd can also work to his disadvantage if he falters due to his fragile mindset.
However, i will give him a go, despite his injury worries, and i believe he will come flying out of the traps with the crowd behind him. This will not be the case the whole match but i think if the crowd is a positive factor it could frustrate murray whose confidence on the dirt atm is very low. Gasquet will have the close match over verdy in his head and i believe his extra class will see him through. I think if gasquet wins it will have to be before 5 sets due to his poor record at 5 setters and his flaky nature. At the odds worth a small investment.
Potential Profit £35.60
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