Saturday 31 July 2010

Late US Bet

£40 on Blake to beat Lopez at 1.82

Blake comin back to form slowly. Likes the American swing where lopez has a decent record at best. Will take blake at small stakes until he gets more game time.

Potential Profit £32.80

Friday 30 July 2010

Late Friday

£80 on Tipsarevic at 2.64 to beat baghdatis
Potential profit £132.80

Friday's Bets

£60 on Davydenko to beat Chela at 2.36 at +1-3 +0-30
Although this is one of the slowest clay courts arond, i believe chela lacks the mentality and weapons these days to beat the best no matter the court. Davy has winners points to defend and should have enough to overcome the argie.
Potential Profit £81.60

Thursday 29 July 2010

Thursday's Bets

Unfortunately a little late in my write ups but today's bets (which i backed yesterday but perfect time to write as gulbis is 1-1 in sets above price matched) were,

£80 on gulbis to beat Falla at 1.46
Gulbis has big time talent and i think that he is soon going to produce at a major (on at 130 for US Open, a little soon probably but trading options). He should have too much for falla, still hurting from pushing fed so hard.
Potential Profit £36.80

£60 on Blake to beat becker at 1.6
Blake is slowly coming to form. He has had a tough year after struggling badly with injuries. He had an impressive r1 win over mayer and the more games he play the better. Becker has never fared great in american swing and i believe blake, despite being inconsistent at the best of times is a worthy strong favourite.
Potential Profit £36

Wednesday 28 July 2010

Tuesdays Late Bets

The brain stagger proved a very expensive mistake. Take three for now.

£80 on Tipsarevic to beat devvarmann at 1.47
Potential Profit £37.60

£30 on Schuettler to beat ginepri at 2.6
Potential Profit £48

£25 on anderson to beat querrey 3.05
Potential Profit £51.25

Tuesday 27 July 2010

Crazy Bets

After the shambles that was santiago giraldo, i have a number of bets. This is by no means a way of me chasing as i feel there is great value in all, but i don't have the heart to gve individual reasons.

£65 on malisse at 1.53 to beat sela
Potential profit £34.45

£60 on Kevin Anderson to beat Marchenko at 1.6
potential Profit £36

£20 on vliegen to beat sweeting at 2.78
Potential Profit £35.60

£25 on petzchner to beat rochus at 2.58
Potential profit £39.50

£60 on fognini at 1.57 to beat phau
Potential Profit £34.20

£25 on hanescu at 2.4 to beat DGT
Potential Profit £35

£60 on falla at 1.59 to beat k. beck
Potentail profit £35.40

£15 on m.gonzalez to beat seppi at 3.55
Potential Profit £38.25

£120 on bellucci at 1.25 to beat chuidinelli
Potential Profit £30

Late Monday Bet

£20 on giraldo at 4.8 at 0-0 2-0* tipsa
Giraldo in control of most rallies, but making too many errors. Crazy price as he had two break points in first game.
Potential Profit £76

Sunday 25 July 2010

Sunday Value

£50 on John Isner to beat Mardy Fish at 2.68
Bookies have went so overboard following fish's great form and victory over roddick. Isner with his serve will be extremely hard to break and see this game much close to 50-50. Simply shocked at the prices and think isner is great value.
Potential Profit £83

Friday 23 July 2010

Late Bet

£12 on Lukas Lacko to beat Lleyton hewitt at 4.8
Lacko came through a tough encounter vs kuniytsun. He won the last two sets on tbs and this will give him an advantage over hewitt as he has time to adjust to the conditions. I believe hewitt is plenty short at 1.25 as this is his first game since wimb and it is hard to know how he will go. Lacko worth a shot.
Potential Profit £45.60

Wednesday 21 July 2010

Wednesday's Bet

£60 on Fish at 1.62 to beat Genepri
Fish on great form, winning newport after queens final and looking to follow it up. I see value in the price considering his form, making the h2h irrelevant as there was different form and most games were some time ago.
Potential Profit £37.20

Tuesday 20 July 2010

Tuesday's Bets

£60 on Fognini to beat Gicquel at 1.51
Fognini the more natural dirtballer of the two. He came through a tough encounter yesterday against the Spanish qualifier Hidalgo. Gicquel was beat quite easily in qualies and despite the fact i am always wary of lucky loser's, given his form this year, and his preference for faster surfaces fognini looks the obvious pick. Further, the fact this is a slower clay court will only aid fog, and given his french open this year, he showed his credentials, outlasting monfils, he should have enough today.
Potential Profit £30.60

£60 on Sela to beat Donald at 1.65 av
Sela has had a pretty good year but showed his worth come the grass season where he produced a great display to beat roddick at Queens. He likes the faster surfaces, with his net game excellant for such a small man. Also, despite having a weak serve his variation makes it hard to break on thesxe faster surfaces. Donald, for all his talent, is only returning to atp tour, and i believe it is a big ask to beat sela, who won their only meeting, in his first atp game since his break.
Potential Profit £39

£60 on Muller to beat Przysiezny at 1.52
Muller is slowly coming back to the form that he is capable of. He came through qualifying impressively and leads the h2h 2-0 with both enounters coming this year. Given his booming serve on this faster surface, he will be hard to break and should have enough to get through this.
Potential Profit £31.20

£35 on Anderson to beat Tipsarevic at 2.32
With anderson's huge serve it will be hard for tipsa to break on these quicker surfaces. Tipsa, despite having a decent record on faster terrain gets increasingly frustrated and can lose concentration, which is not what is needed today where he will need his full concentration to take out anderson as if he loses his serve once it will be hard to break back in that set. Further, he has been his usual inconsistent self this year, following a good performance he got to the final in Holland the week before wimb, before getting beat by stak winning only three games, and going on to wimb eher he was quite easily accounted for by the ageing clement. He really is a mixed bag and i will take the free point machine on this faster terrain at above evens.
Potential Profit £46.20

Monday 19 July 2010

Monday's Late Games

£30 on Ram to beat Beck at 2.5
The courts are said to play much like Washington where the courts play very fast. This should suit both players, but more so ram who seems to need the court like an ice rink. I watched beck at newport and his performance was nothing short of appalling. He simply didnt look like he wanted to be there. He had a decent run at aptos ch before pulling out with a right shoulder injury. Before that, however he lost 11 of his last 12 between grass clay hard and indoor, including losing to ram, showing that he simply wasn't at it. I can't have him as a relatively strong fav, given his form and that ram leads h2h winning 2 recent games and will take the american even given his awful last peformance, given becks recent conditioning and form.
Potential Profit £45

£35 on Russell at 2.42 to beat Becker
Russell usually perfroms in the American swing, winning games he should. Today he faces becker who is having a good year with some solid performances. This is his first game since having a few injury concerns following wimb amking him vulnerable agianst russell who will force him to hit one more shot, which could force becker into errors. Russell leads the h2h 3-1 winning the most recent encounter and i can see him coming out on top in what will inevitabely be a tight encounter.
Potential Profit £49.70

Monday's Initial Bets

£25 on Mariano Gonzalez to beat O. Rochus at 2.46
Mariano is the more natural dirtballer of the two. I always think rochus is too small to be a good clay courter as the ball bounces too high for him. Although the fact this is a lower bouncng clay court will lessen that. He comes off a grass court final and a decent wimb performance but the transition may cause him some problems. Gonzalez has had some decent performances lately and i can see an upset.
Potential Profit £36.50

£25 on Cuevas to beat f. mayer at 2.5
Cuevas is showing returns to some of his decent form that he showed at times last year. He performed well last week, with some good wins and will be looking to carry that form into this game where he has sf points to defend from last year. He usually performs well on slower clay where even though his serve wins him cheap points on quicker dirt. Mayer is a player who in myopinion prefers quicker dirt and after a tough last few tounies is very vulnerable in a tough match up today. But for mayer's recent good form odds would be much close to evens.
Potential Profit £37.50

£40 on Gruel to beat Bolelli at 1.99
Gruel showed some good form last week in his run to the qf, where he beat gilles simon along the way before losing to jcf in two close sets where he had his chances. Today in front of his home fans he faces an off form bolelli this year, despite a recent ch win, who lost in qualies last week before making it through this week. I always think sibo is a confidence player and despite showing some signs lately i believe gruel in front of his fans is a big ask with his current mental state.
Potential Profit £39.60

Sunday 18 July 2010

Rocking Robin's Pride

£50 on Soderling at 1.64 to beat almagro
First thing up watched bits of almagro and he looked seriously impressive although robredo seemed to be his own worst enemy at times. Robin proved he wants this tournament badly today. After a horrendous first set, where he gave away many break points and was an error machine, he played great, serving huge. He only lost 5 points on serve in the last two sets which speaks volumes against a good returner like ferrer. In almagro it seems a decent match up with the h2h at 3-2 and almagro has a poor h2h against similar players to sod - 0-3 vs tsonga, 0-2 vs cilic and berdych 1-3. I believe if sod can reproduce the performance of final two sets with same serving stats, he will have too much, with home adv being an extra bonus. Further with the big serve and fh, the game is on the sod racket. I'll give sod another go.
Potential Profit £32
New Bank £870

Saturday 17 July 2010

Saturday's Bet

Was going to do monty again but with the drift this morning the value there is gone.

£30 on soderling to beat ferrer at 2
Soderling is at his home tourni. Despite this he has seemed to struggle as seen when he lost a set to his countryman Vinci before being a break down in sets two and three wih seppi serving for the match. Despite this he showed great resolve getting through. He faces ferrer today who seems in good nick. The h2h is at 6-2 sod and i believe this shows his strengthin the match up. Like monty yesterday i believe it is a matter of time before sod fires and i believe that although this is the surface that offers ferrer the most chance to beat ferrer, sod is more than a 50%chance.
Potential Profit £30

£40 on Monfils to beat DGT at 1.6
Monfils done well beating mayer yesterday following losing the first set. His performance greatly improved following it and if he produces the same it will be enough to beat the limited dirtballer DGT. DGT has been serving very big all week claiming some decent wins, but i believe monfils is the much better player, who seems to be hitting form and should have too much. The way DGT has been serving could be a tight game but i expect monfils to win possibly by a tb and a break. Expected price just below 1.5, so at current prices i see some value.
Potential Profit £24

Friday 16 July 2010

Friday's Selections

£15 on Gruel to beat Ferrero at 3.55
Still not convinced ferrero has refound his form following a tough couple of months. If ferrero does find the form of february this year, then his current price looks long. However, this form hasn't been seen in a while. Today, he faces gruel in front of his home fans and at current prices given current form there is some value in the german.
Potential Profit £38.25

£20 on montanes at 2.84 to beat melzer
I believe current prices are disrespectful to monty. He has not hit top form this week, but has done well against both opponnents to get through and he is liable to catch fire soon. He is a natural dirtballer and i believe the odds should be much closer than current prices. Further melzer is inconsistent at the best of times, and despite monty's terrible record vs lefties ill give him a shot.
Potential Profit £36.80

£30 on monfils at 2.1 to beat f. mayer
Monfils almost came a cropper against andujar. He has struggled for form lately with injury problems but despite this, i thought he'd be fav today and at current prices i'll give him a go to beat the in-form mayer who is finding some decent form. Monfils had a good davis cup win and followed it with a win vs andujar and i hope the improvement continues today in what will surely be a tight game.
Potential Profit £33

Bank lies at £770

Thursday 15 July 2010

Thursday's Bets

£50 on Robredo to beat Gulobev at 1.5
Robredo the more natural of the two dirtballers. He claimed his first win yesterday in five attempts and looks to be slowly coming back to form. He has a good record winning it twice in the past and he has semi final points to defend. He should have too much for Gul who in my opinion is decent on dirt but more suited to pacier terrain.
Potential Profit £25

£30 on GGL to beat Mayer at 2.4
This is all to do with price as i see this match as much closer to 50-50, despite mayer being the home dog. mayer like many players outside the top 30 is vulnerable after a big scalp. This can be seen at wimby after taking scalps of cilic and fish, he tamely retired unknown against lu when trailing by two sets. GGL has had a faltering year with some good wins and diabolical losses. I believe there is much value at prices to beat a mayer flaky at the best of times.
Potential Profit £42

Wednesday 14 July 2010

Wednesdays Late bet

After missing montanes earlier due to other commitments i have selected another.
£40 on gilles simon at 1.69 to beat Greul
Gruel has been having a pretty poor year to date with nothing great to note, while simon has struggled with injuries, so it is a metting of two players who would have hoped for better years. Simon is slowlycoming back to form, with a win in a dead rubber followed by a victory over the tough jamaican. He should be too consistent off the ground for gruel today, forcing him into errors and for the second day running i will go against the home dog due to what i see as inflated prices as a result.
Potential Profit £27.60

Tuesday 13 July 2010

Wednesday's Extra

£50 on Montanes to beat petzchner at 1.64
Monty is the natural dirtballer of the two. While his game has greatly improved on all surfaces in the past years he is still best on the dirt. Petz on the other hand is a player who has been on great form in the past months, as seen pusing nadal 5 sets. However he is not at his best on clay where his slice bh is much less effective and i believe monty can take him out after a hectic schedule. The fact that he is playing at home for the third time this year and given the other two times he got to semi finals, being defeated by federer and youz, which shows how strong he has been. Despite this i will give him a go.
Potential Profit £32

Monday 12 July 2010

Tuesday's Starter

£30 on Mariano Gonzalez to beat Golubev at 2.16
Mariano is a limited dirtballer, who plays with big top spin, playing most of his career on the stuff with a 63% record on it. Golubev is a player who hits the ball very flat, preferring the quicker surfaces with indoor hard being his best surface imo. Gonzalez took a set off hewitt at wimby and got to a challenger final on clay in his previous tourni, so he is in decent nick. I don't think gonzalez will be too worried about facing golubev as he has fared quite well against similar flat hitters in the past and with his top spin game he should break down the golubev game where the backhand in particular can be attacked. I'll take the argie.
Potential profit £34.80
Bank now lies at £838.

Sunday 11 July 2010

Sunday's Pride

£30 on Nalbandian to beat Youz at 2.1
Nalby on form and fit is surely one of the best indoors players around. Today he faces a tough task in playing youz, a very good indoors player in front of his passionate fans. Nalby has been well rested since his great win on friday and i will take him to win this given his great indoor record and nere and great dc record. His nerve will see him through in a tight game hopefully.
Potential Profit £32

Tuesday 6 July 2010

Wednesday's Bet

£40 on Mahut to beat Falla at 1.7
With the speed of the courts, i give quite strong favouritism to mahut with his massive serve, good net game and nice strokes. falla too has a decent grass game but at 1.7 ill give mahut the go with that simply huge serve as this grass court will be even more advantageous than queens and wimb where he had a decnt showing.
Potential Profit £28

Also to clarify had £28 on Kim at 2.1 and £8 on Levine at 5.9. Good luck all.

Tuesdays Bets

Have backed kevin kim and jessy levine (very small stake today). Have vvery little time so will be back later to clarify.

Monday 5 July 2010

Monday's Bets

£68 on Olivier Rochus to beat Roger-Vasselin at 1.46
Rochus is here defending semi final points last year so there should be obvious motivation. Rochus loves the quicker pace courts and this is the fastest grass court about. Rochus showed good game vs djoker and i believe he should take the french man out, who despite holding an 18-10 grass court record but almost all of his wins have either been qualies and challengers. In fact the only matches he won won outside qualies and challengers was wimb 2007, showing his struggles. I believe rochus is simply better on faster terrain and should get the job done.
Potential Profit £31.28

£48 on Brown to beat Phau at 1.73
Brown showed earlier in joburg how much he favours the faster terrain. With his booming serve he should get a lot of free points on the quick terrain. Phau on the other hand is 6-15 on grass with no wins outside qualies. Brown showed good resolve beating dancevic at queens and i believe he will revel in the faster courts here and should have too much for phau. the fact ram won here last year shows how advantageous the courts are for big servers and i will take brown today.
Potential Profit £35.04

Friday 2 July 2010

Friday Bet

£35 on nadal to beat murray at 1.8 at 3-2* to Murray
This will inevitablly be a tight clash between two of the world's greatest players. Think nadal has the edge on the grass court against murray as he has the greater variation in his game, with his volleys being a very underrated weapon. Murray has the losing h2h but more importantly has won their last two meetings in GS's, both on hard courts, one in Aus and one in USA. However, in both these games nadal had injury troubles with the US game coming at the end of a gruelling season which he won Wimb and French but this took a great toll on his body. The victory at Aus this year came with injury concerns over his knee and even with this he could have won the first two sets being a break up in both. He is back closer to full knick today on courts he is more suited to especially from USA's hard courts. I think he will edge it and there is a little value at current price imo.
Potential Profit £28