£80 on melzer at 1.41
Up late! Put this bet on last night. Melzer is currenty up a set but down a break in the 2nd. He is currently trading at 1.44, so i can't be accussed of cheating. I fancy him to edge through in what will inevitably be a tight affair.
Potential Profit £32.80
£50 on verdasco to beat almagro at 1.8
Verdy's had a great dirt ball season. He has a 3-0 h2h record over almagro winning every set. He done well to see off kohli last round and i will take him to get through any injuries to get the job done. He beat him in three here last year and i believe he is on better form this year, as admittedly is almagro, and i believe he will find a way to get the job done.
Potential Profit £40
Monday, 31 May 2010
Saturday, 29 May 2010
Sunday's Bets
After today i feel sick. Ferrero fought back from 2 sets down to 2-2 and a break up but lost it. Three defeats and the weeks profit has almost venished. There is reasoning for my three bets but not in the mood to talk much after today.
£88 on soderling at 1.4 to beat cilic
Potential Profit £35.20
£47.24 on Berdych to beat murray at 2.48
Potential Profit £68.97
£52 on tsonga at 2.1 to beat youz
Potential Profit £57.20
£88 on soderling at 1.4 to beat cilic
Potential Profit £35.20
£47.24 on Berdych to beat murray at 2.48
Potential Profit £68.97
£52 on tsonga at 2.1 to beat youz
Potential Profit £57.20
Saturdays extra
£68 on ferrero at 1.45 to beat genepri at 5-6 on serve.
Only a quick post. King should still see it through!
Potential Profit £30
Only a quick post. King should still see it through!
Potential Profit £30
Saturday's Bet
£120 on Roddick at 1.24
Roddick has not been convincing as of yet on his run here. He took five sets to beat niemo and was broken about five times in his rd 2 encounter. Despite this he has done enough to win. Here he faces gabashvilli who like himself has been luck with his draw. This is the furthest gabash has been in a gs and i believe it is a step too far. He rarely beats top 20 players and playing roddick at 8 in the rankings even on his worst surface is without doubt a tough draw. I will take Roddick for the third and last time in this tournament.
Potential Profit £25.20
Roddick has not been convincing as of yet on his run here. He took five sets to beat niemo and was broken about five times in his rd 2 encounter. Despite this he has done enough to win. Here he faces gabashvilli who like himself has been luck with his draw. This is the furthest gabash has been in a gs and i believe it is a step too far. He rarely beats top 20 players and playing roddick at 8 in the rankings even on his worst surface is without doubt a tough draw. I will take Roddick for the third and last time in this tournament.
Potential Profit £25.20
£25 on Ljubo to beat bellucci at 2.36
Both players had tough 5 setters yesterday. Bellucci struggled badly against andujar and done well to see it through, as did ljubo against fish, who was 15-30 serving to stay in the match. Ljubo is a good operator and proved at IW that he is capable of beating anyone on his day. Further his serve is even more effective on clay backed up by the stat he has held his serve 90% of time this tourni. This will be a tight game with few breaks of serve likely. I will take grandpa at odds against over bellucci, who is still learning his trade at this level. This is the furthest he has been in a gs so there will be nerves ther. I will take the experienced croat.
Potential Profit £34
Friday update
After the wins and fish's loss 10-8 in the last after being 2-1 up in sets, the bank lies at £1311.24. Am thinking of ljubo, depending how high his price can go and roddick for tomorrow with berdych for sunday.
Friday, 28 May 2010
Friday's Bets
£56 on tsonga to beat de bakker at 1.51
This is a rematch of a few weeks ago in Barcelona qf where the young underdog came out on top in three sets. This is a whole different match. This is a game over 5 sets in tsonga's home country. This is enough in my opinion to swing the match in tsonga's favour. It took del potro to beat jwt last year and i believe it will take a very good player this year too. While de bakker is very talented and has the potential to be at least a top 10er, i believe his inexperience will tell today. This is his first time beyond the 1st rd of any slam and the fact he plays the french's only real chance, now monfils is out makes it a real tough one. I will take tsonga to gain revenge in what should be a quite close game.
Potential Profit £28.56
This will do me for the time being. Might be back later with a swing of the mind. I have also added £4.24 on fish as i can't understand how he can be the same price at 1 set all as he was at the start of play. Bank now £820, with fish, melzer and ferrero still to be settled.
This is a rematch of a few weeks ago in Barcelona qf where the young underdog came out on top in three sets. This is a whole different match. This is a game over 5 sets in tsonga's home country. This is enough in my opinion to swing the match in tsonga's favour. It took del potro to beat jwt last year and i believe it will take a very good player this year too. While de bakker is very talented and has the potential to be at least a top 10er, i believe his inexperience will tell today. This is his first time beyond the 1st rd of any slam and the fact he plays the french's only real chance, now monfils is out makes it a real tough one. I will take tsonga to gain revenge in what should be a quite close game.
Potential Profit £28.56
This will do me for the time being. Might be back later with a swing of the mind. I have also added £4.24 on fish as i can't understand how he can be the same price at 1 set all as he was at the start of play. Bank now £820, with fish, melzer and ferrero still to be settled.
Thursday, 27 May 2010
Thursday's Final Bet
£200 on Roddick at 1.13
Roddick will be rubbing his hands together seeing his draw until he potentially meets the wily old dog ferrer in rd 4. This will be defending the 4th rd he had last year and he must beat kavcic and gabashvilli or zemlja to do that-very achievable. He will be glad of the extra game time that he was given by nieminen, who pushed him to the limit, following having no clay games this season. He somehow got the job done against niemo who at patches showed signs of his old self, playing some great stuff, hitting many great winners. Roddick never gets the credit he deserves on clay, as he is never going to beat the best on clay but he is usually consistent enough beating what he should, highlighted by a 66% record on clay since 2000.
Kavcic in his second gs proper, following his r1 defeat at aus10 to odesnik. He is extremely inexperienced on the dirt and despite beating a poorly conditioned schwank, i can't see him take out roddick over 5 sets at a gs. Even at this price on the dirt ill take roddick.
Potential Profit £26
Bank now at a lowly £120
Roddick will be rubbing his hands together seeing his draw until he potentially meets the wily old dog ferrer in rd 4. This will be defending the 4th rd he had last year and he must beat kavcic and gabashvilli or zemlja to do that-very achievable. He will be glad of the extra game time that he was given by nieminen, who pushed him to the limit, following having no clay games this season. He somehow got the job done against niemo who at patches showed signs of his old self, playing some great stuff, hitting many great winners. Roddick never gets the credit he deserves on clay, as he is never going to beat the best on clay but he is usually consistent enough beating what he should, highlighted by a 66% record on clay since 2000.
Kavcic in his second gs proper, following his r1 defeat at aus10 to odesnik. He is extremely inexperienced on the dirt and despite beating a poorly conditioned schwank, i can't see him take out roddick over 5 sets at a gs. Even at this price on the dirt ill take roddick.
Potential Profit £26
Bank now at a lowly £120
Thursday's Bets
£20 on Fish to beat Ljubicic at 3.15
While out of the two ljubo is the better clay courter imo and when i first say ljubi at above 1.6 i was considering backing him, i will take fish at above 2/1. Since ljubo won indian wells, he has struggled with injury, withdrawing from Rome and Estoril with a side strain and retiring when a set up against becker in miami with a back injury. This is clearly not good prep for rg, where his trainingwas clearly interrupted. Further, his interview following lu victory gave the impression that he is still stryggling with injuries. On the other side we have fish who seems to be injured all over. He is however battle hardened. Following his tough 3rd set tb defeat to dolgo, he was a ll and took advantage beating russell and pushing melzer 3 sets. He beat berrer in 5 sets and these close games will have him well prepared to take out ljubo.
Potential Profit £43
£160 on Melzer to beat Mahut at 1.19
As much as i would like to see mahut win i just can't see it. After all the postive energy in his comfortable 3 set wins i simply can't see him following it up here. He had not won a 1st rd match at rg (before zverev) since 2000. His powerful serve game is simply not aided by the clay at rg even with the fans behind him. This will be more so witgh the clay getting wet and slowing the court up even more. Further, he has been playing mainly on the ch circuit and this is a big step up considering it is his least favoured surface. Melzer on the other hand, has had a good clay court campaign being his usual consistent self on the stuff, beating everyone he should, apart from petz at mc, having a god run to qf at Madrid. Further, he matches up very well to big servers as he gets many returns deep, and he likes a target, which he may get with mahut net rushing. All in all a confident pick.
Potential Profit £30.40
£180 on ferrero at 1.16
The king of clay is enjoying a great renaissance. He has had a great sa and euro clay court season and at his age it could be his last season at the very top. He is on a roll at his real home and i can't see the talented but greatly inexperienced riba beat him at rg this year. Riba is a dirt baller still learning his trade, playing mostly at ch level. This is the first gs he has qualified for and he beat gicquel in his first ever gs rd 1 match. He has already had a decent tournament and although he has nothing to lose i can;t see him beat his country man, who he would have idolised when he was growing up, over 5 sets at rg. Long live the King!
Potential Profit £28.80
The bank is currently £320 with all yesteday's matches in play with isner with a lot of work to do at a set down and murray and baggy 1-0 and 2-1 up in sets respectively. Hate doing so many short odds but this a gs where favs are usually more reliable and i am still using reasoning and thought behind bets. Wish me luck with so much of the bank tied up.
While out of the two ljubo is the better clay courter imo and when i first say ljubi at above 1.6 i was considering backing him, i will take fish at above 2/1. Since ljubo won indian wells, he has struggled with injury, withdrawing from Rome and Estoril with a side strain and retiring when a set up against becker in miami with a back injury. This is clearly not good prep for rg, where his trainingwas clearly interrupted. Further, his interview following lu victory gave the impression that he is still stryggling with injuries. On the other side we have fish who seems to be injured all over. He is however battle hardened. Following his tough 3rd set tb defeat to dolgo, he was a ll and took advantage beating russell and pushing melzer 3 sets. He beat berrer in 5 sets and these close games will have him well prepared to take out ljubo.
Potential Profit £43
£160 on Melzer to beat Mahut at 1.19
As much as i would like to see mahut win i just can't see it. After all the postive energy in his comfortable 3 set wins i simply can't see him following it up here. He had not won a 1st rd match at rg (before zverev) since 2000. His powerful serve game is simply not aided by the clay at rg even with the fans behind him. This will be more so witgh the clay getting wet and slowing the court up even more. Further, he has been playing mainly on the ch circuit and this is a big step up considering it is his least favoured surface. Melzer on the other hand, has had a good clay court campaign being his usual consistent self on the stuff, beating everyone he should, apart from petz at mc, having a god run to qf at Madrid. Further, he matches up very well to big servers as he gets many returns deep, and he likes a target, which he may get with mahut net rushing. All in all a confident pick.
Potential Profit £30.40
£180 on ferrero at 1.16
The king of clay is enjoying a great renaissance. He has had a great sa and euro clay court season and at his age it could be his last season at the very top. He is on a roll at his real home and i can't see the talented but greatly inexperienced riba beat him at rg this year. Riba is a dirt baller still learning his trade, playing mostly at ch level. This is the first gs he has qualified for and he beat gicquel in his first ever gs rd 1 match. He has already had a decent tournament and although he has nothing to lose i can;t see him beat his country man, who he would have idolised when he was growing up, over 5 sets at rg. Long live the King!
Potential Profit £28.80
The bank is currently £320 with all yesteday's matches in play with isner with a lot of work to do at a set down and murray and baggy 1-0 and 2-1 up in sets respectively. Hate doing so many short odds but this a gs where favs are usually more reliable and i am still using reasoning and thought behind bets. Wish me luck with so much of the bank tied up.
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
Craziness
£236 on Murray to beat Chela at 1.12
Same bet as a few weeks ago. Essentailly chela is weaponless and especially over 5 sets just can't see him beat murray. Murray will have good confidence after mon and there is no way chela can beat him now even on clay over 5 sets. Look at result from last years RG and you see all you need to know. Very Confident. Murray needst really look at himself if he loses this!
Potential Profit £28.32
Same bet as a few weeks ago. Essentailly chela is weaponless and especially over 5 sets just can't see him beat murray. Murray will have good confidence after mon and there is no way chela can beat him now even on clay over 5 sets. Look at result from last years RG and you see all you need to know. Very Confident. Murray needst really look at himself if he loses this!
Potential Profit £28.32
Wednesday's Extra's
£30 on Benneteau at 2.26
The home dog against the inexperienced but talented argie. It will inevitably be close but i will take the french on home clay which will slow down mayer's power game. Mayer has been on great form, but in what will in evitably be a tight match i will go for the experienced home dog at odds against.
Potential Profit £37.80
£118 on Isner at 1.25
Chui is poor on the clay with a career record below 40%. Isner has proved his versatility thios year on all surfaces, pushing joker 5 sets on dirt among other impressive clay results. I will take isner even at short odds to take Chui out. Further, chui has played 5 sets on mon which will also play into isner's hands.
Potential Profit £29.50
The home dog against the inexperienced but talented argie. It will inevitably be close but i will take the french on home clay which will slow down mayer's power game. Mayer has been on great form, but in what will in evitably be a tight match i will go for the experienced home dog at odds against.
Potential Profit £37.80
£118 on Isner at 1.25
Chui is poor on the clay with a career record below 40%. Isner has proved his versatility thios year on all surfaces, pushing joker 5 sets on dirt among other impressive clay results. I will take isner even at short odds to take Chui out. Further, chui has played 5 sets on mon which will also play into isner's hands.
Potential Profit £29.50
Tuesday, 25 May 2010
Wednesday's Start
£83.20 on baghdatis to beat granollers at 1.4
Baggy has shown a much improved level on the clay this yaer, proving to be able and quite consistent over the last weeks. He is 7-3 for his last 10 matches with his five defeats in clay in total coming against cilic, ferrer, gulbis, montanes and mayer. Ferrer and montanes are consistent dirtballers, while the other three are aggressive attacking players who baggy struggles against as a match up as the pace of their groundstrokes troubles his poor movement. This is not a problem he will face with granollers. Even though granollers is spanish he is not a natural clay courter imo, highlighted by his results at rg - beat in qualies 07, 2nd rd 08 and 1st rd 09. He is inexperienced at this level shown by 6-11 at grand slams outside qs, never making it past r2 anywhere. Baggy should win this given his experience, despite his clay shortcomings, as granollers is not a player who he matches up poorly to. Baggy to get the job done.
Potential Profit £33.20
Was thinking isner but a little short...will sleep on it!
Bank £1076 following roddick's struggle and three other comfortable wins....yeh ok prices were very short!
Am I Insane?
Two more crazy selections for the day.
£200 on Melzer to beat sela at 1.15
I hate betting on melzer as such a heavy fav but this is one i believe is a good chance. Melzer has had a good clay court season proved by firstly pushing verdasco to the limit and losing from a seta nd a break up before taking advantage of nando tiring the next time as he outplayed him in two. He is 6-4 on clay this season only losing to almagro, verdy, wawa and petzchner. The only poor loss there is petz, which was his first clay tourni at arguably the slowest clay court and his game has seen good improvement since then, so we can look by that. He is a respectable 55% record on the clay in his career highlighting his decent consistency. Further melzer has point to defend following his third rd effort last year.
Sela on the other hand hates the stuff with his orthodox game not matching up well to the dirt at all. He is 21-34 at 38% career long with almost all his victories coming at ch level. He is 2-10 since french 08, with his only victories against levine on houstons green clay and No 225 Jean-Renne Lisnard at rg 2009 highlighting his struggles. The fact his only outings this year on clay have been mexico in feb, Davis cup in march and houston 's quick clay in april highlight his hatred. He will be looking to the grass season where he will perform better and has points to defend at wimbledon following his run to 4th rd last year. If melzer loses here he really needs to look where he is going.
Potential Profit £30
£130.40 on starace at 1.21 to beat marchenko
The difference here is starace is a natural dirt baller, and this is where he makes his money,wherereas marchenko prefers much quiker terrain. Starace showed good form last week beating monfils, kubot and darcis before falling to home fav and eventual winner gasquet in two tbs. Marchenko on the other hand is very inexperienced on dirt, disliking it, highlighted by a poor 15-25 record on it, with most winners coming at ch level. He is 3-7 last 10 on clay with two of his wins in qualies at nice and the other in a ch 1st rd, highlighting his struggles. He is simply not good enough or experienced enough on dirt to beat starace imo. Even at low price will give it a go.
Potential Profit £27.38
£200 on Melzer to beat sela at 1.15
I hate betting on melzer as such a heavy fav but this is one i believe is a good chance. Melzer has had a good clay court season proved by firstly pushing verdasco to the limit and losing from a seta nd a break up before taking advantage of nando tiring the next time as he outplayed him in two. He is 6-4 on clay this season only losing to almagro, verdy, wawa and petzchner. The only poor loss there is petz, which was his first clay tourni at arguably the slowest clay court and his game has seen good improvement since then, so we can look by that. He is a respectable 55% record on the clay in his career highlighting his decent consistency. Further melzer has point to defend following his third rd effort last year.
Sela on the other hand hates the stuff with his orthodox game not matching up well to the dirt at all. He is 21-34 at 38% career long with almost all his victories coming at ch level. He is 2-10 since french 08, with his only victories against levine on houstons green clay and No 225 Jean-Renne Lisnard at rg 2009 highlighting his struggles. The fact his only outings this year on clay have been mexico in feb, Davis cup in march and houston 's quick clay in april highlight his hatred. He will be looking to the grass season where he will perform better and has points to defend at wimbledon following his run to 4th rd last year. If melzer loses here he really needs to look where he is going.
Potential Profit £30
£130.40 on starace at 1.21 to beat marchenko
The difference here is starace is a natural dirt baller, and this is where he makes his money,wherereas marchenko prefers much quiker terrain. Starace showed good form last week beating monfils, kubot and darcis before falling to home fav and eventual winner gasquet in two tbs. Marchenko on the other hand is very inexperienced on dirt, disliking it, highlighted by a poor 15-25 record on it, with most winners coming at ch level. He is 3-7 last 10 on clay with two of his wins in qualies at nice and the other in a ch 1st rd, highlighting his struggles. He is simply not good enough or experienced enough on dirt to beat starace imo. Even at low price will give it a go.
Potential Profit £27.38
Bank now lowly £488!
Monday, 24 May 2010
Tuesday's Early Selections
100 on Roddick at 1.29 av
Roddick has a consistent record on clay, despite it being by far his worst surface, winnning over 65% of games on the dirt. Nemo is a fading player now, whose best seems to be behind him now. Although he has a good past record at rg i find it hard to see him beat roddick, even on clay over 5 sets. Roddick's game has more consistency this year which should bode well for clay, and i can see an improvement at rg this year, where i believe it will take a good player to beat him. He should view this tourni as a good chance to win a few games and have good form for Queens. As a final note roddick is 63-14 vs left handers.
Potential Profit £29
£132 on ferrero to beat cuevas at 1.22
Ferrero has a great rg record, 31-9, and has shown great form on the dirt this year in both the sa and european swing. He is getting towards the end of hus career and it is unlikely that he will see such a rich vein again. It has been a few years since he had a real good run here. He has had a break lately and should be well rested to hopefully have a run similar that he had at the early 2000's, Cuevas on the other hand has been poor this year, having injury struggles as well as form and i can only see a rested jcf get the job done. Hopefully we can see the original king of clay this year.
Potential Profit £28.16
Bank sits at £818.40 after a quite good day today that would have been much better if i had stuck to original selections. May be back with additional selections.
Roddick has a consistent record on clay, despite it being by far his worst surface, winnning over 65% of games on the dirt. Nemo is a fading player now, whose best seems to be behind him now. Although he has a good past record at rg i find it hard to see him beat roddick, even on clay over 5 sets. Roddick's game has more consistency this year which should bode well for clay, and i can see an improvement at rg this year, where i believe it will take a good player to beat him. He should view this tourni as a good chance to win a few games and have good form for Queens. As a final note roddick is 63-14 vs left handers.
Potential Profit £29
£132 on ferrero to beat cuevas at 1.22
Ferrero has a great rg record, 31-9, and has shown great form on the dirt this year in both the sa and european swing. He is getting towards the end of hus career and it is unlikely that he will see such a rich vein again. It has been a few years since he had a real good run here. He has had a break lately and should be well rested to hopefully have a run similar that he had at the early 2000's, Cuevas on the other hand has been poor this year, having injury struggles as well as form and i can only see a rested jcf get the job done. Hopefully we can see the original king of clay this year.
Potential Profit £28.16
Bank sits at £818.40 after a quite good day today that would have been much better if i had stuck to original selections. May be back with additional selections.
Additional Selections
£50 on Robredo in-play *2-2 at 1.66
Robredo is an experienced campaigner. His fav surface is arguably clay. He has a 30-10 record since 2000 at rg, making the quarters last year, before being defeated by jmdp. He has always made it to at least r16 since he first qualified in 01, making the qtrs four times. Troicki on the other hand, while improving, in his four appearances here he has not made it from qualies twice, beat in 1st rd and made second rd last year beating kubot in 5 sets. It is clear that robredo has the experienece. Further, he has won two recent meetings, 3 easy sets at last yrs aus open and on clay a few weeks ago, making a 5-0 sets h2h. The only question mark is robredo's health, the reason for the inflated price, which he has stressed is fine following his withdrawal a number of weeks ago, not playing since which is a worry. If robredo is fit, he will be motivated and i can only see one outcome. At the price i am prepared to take the risk, but for less bank.
Potential Profit £33
Robredo is an experienced campaigner. His fav surface is arguably clay. He has a 30-10 record since 2000 at rg, making the quarters last year, before being defeated by jmdp. He has always made it to at least r16 since he first qualified in 01, making the qtrs four times. Troicki on the other hand, while improving, in his four appearances here he has not made it from qualies twice, beat in 1st rd and made second rd last year beating kubot in 5 sets. It is clear that robredo has the experienece. Further, he has won two recent meetings, 3 easy sets at last yrs aus open and on clay a few weeks ago, making a 5-0 sets h2h. The only question mark is robredo's health, the reason for the inflated price, which he has stressed is fine following his withdrawal a number of weeks ago, not playing since which is a worry. If robredo is fit, he will be motivated and i can only see one outcome. At the price i am prepared to take the risk, but for less bank.
Potential Profit £33
£20 on Gasquet at 2.8
After considering many alternatives - murray, murray 3-2 and lay 3 sets, have decided to give gasman a go. You really have to question murray's attitude in recent weeks. Watching him when i backed him vs ferrer, his body language was applalling. He was so moody and quite simply out-thought by the wily ferrer. This is, however a completely different match-up for him. Gasquet in my opinion is a better clay court player than murray for pure talent but mentally he can fall to pieces and for this reason he is not among the elite. The home crowd can also work to his disadvantage if he falters due to his fragile mindset.
However, i will give him a go, despite his injury worries, and i believe he will come flying out of the traps with the crowd behind him. This will not be the case the whole match but i think if the crowd is a positive factor it could frustrate murray whose confidence on the dirt atm is very low. Gasquet will have the close match over verdy in his head and i believe his extra class will see him through. I think if gasquet wins it will have to be before 5 sets due to his poor record at 5 setters and his flaky nature. At the odds worth a small investment.
Potential Profit £35.60
£50 on Fish to win at av odds of 1.81
Fish has proved by some of his results in the past that he is a decent player on the dirt. He pushed jurgen melzer hard a couple of weeks ago in a atch up that suited melzer. Fish's main problem when playing on clay is his movement. This is grealy exposed by those playing a natural clay court game. He will not face this today in berrer, whose game is more suited to the faster hard courts or indoor hard. His victory of a poorly conditioned monaco aside he is not a player with much pedigree on dirt, and i rate fish's game higher on the clay. This could be another close one, with fish's extra experience of the bigger game carrying him through.
Potential Profit £40.50
£100 on isner at 1.32
This is a game in which both players would prefer to be playing on faster surfaces. Isner has proved in recent weeks that he can win games on clay, proving that his experience of pushing joker to five sets on the dirt was not a fluke. Golubev is a player who i believe is happiest on indoor hard or fast hard courts. He is still inexperienced on dirt and i believe isner will prove he only pulled out of dusseldorf as precaution and will have too much for an inexperienced golubev.
Potential Profit £32
£60 on bellucci at 1.57
Bellucci is a player, who depite letting me down lately, that i rate highly. He is a player for all surfaces but still has the most experience on clay courts. If he can get llodra's serve back, as he did isner a number of weeks back, into play on regular occassions today he will have more than enough to win the match. To win today llodra will have to keep the rallies short as it is hard to see him win many of the longer ones. I believe bellucci's top spin forehand will cause llodra's bh many problems as the extra bounce will force llodra to hit the ball from further back in the court, forcing more errors. I believe bellucci will be glad of the time off following his defeat last week and the extra time to prepare will help him navigate the tough task of defeating the home dog. Despite this being a home venue of llodra's he has never shinned here, showing that despite having the support his game is more for the faster surfaces, due to his big serve and net rushing game, which he will hopefully have time to prepare for in the coming weeks with defeat here.
Potential Profit £34.20
Was thinking of a few others but think i will keep my powder dry. I have backed ferrero and roddick (for tomorrow) early, as i did fish as i believe their price may drop. I will do write ups tomorrow. Might be back later with additional selections. Wish me luck.
Sunday, 23 May 2010
Experience Counts
There we go he first week of the french open gs and i am back to original bank of £1000. Silly week last week getting so involved week before a major but at least it wasn't fatal. Hopefully for more successful weeks in the future.
£35 on Massu to beat Fognini at 2.28
Fognini is on simply woeful form. He as been very out of sorts, losing eight of last 9, against massu who rarely surfaces to play the bigger events now, mainly making his money through challenger events. Fognini is still very inexperienced over 5 sets, having won only two matches at gs level, with one coming through retirement. Massu has shown in DC affairs that he is capable of raising his game and he has usually shown a little form at rg, losing in the first round twice out of 8 times. With a match up so bereft of any confidence or form, i'll take the experience with a bit of a track record at odds against.
Potential Profit £44.10
£40 on Chuidinelli to beat devvarman at 2.08
Another poor game with two players on their lesser favourite surfaces. In this instance i am going against the man who is through the playoffs. I believe that while chui has a woeful clay record, winning only 38% of matches on the stuff, i believe he has shown a bit of form lately in beating fognini and taking a set from monfils. However, it must be remembered that devvarman only has a 54% record (14-12) with most his wins coming in qualies which chuid's ranking has frequently got him to miss. I believe chuidinelli has the exdperience which can never be underestimated at a gs and i will take him at odds against to beat the admittedly on form qualifier.
Potential Profit £43.20
There we have it, two dodgy selections. Had considered ggl and de bakker but for value and injury questions respectively quickly moved on. I think that should be me for the day on a tough enough day for punting. Wouldn't be too surprised to see either match go 5 sets.
Bank now stands at £925
£35 on Massu to beat Fognini at 2.28
Fognini is on simply woeful form. He as been very out of sorts, losing eight of last 9, against massu who rarely surfaces to play the bigger events now, mainly making his money through challenger events. Fognini is still very inexperienced over 5 sets, having won only two matches at gs level, with one coming through retirement. Massu has shown in DC affairs that he is capable of raising his game and he has usually shown a little form at rg, losing in the first round twice out of 8 times. With a match up so bereft of any confidence or form, i'll take the experience with a bit of a track record at odds against.
Potential Profit £44.10
£40 on Chuidinelli to beat devvarman at 2.08
Another poor game with two players on their lesser favourite surfaces. In this instance i am going against the man who is through the playoffs. I believe that while chui has a woeful clay record, winning only 38% of matches on the stuff, i believe he has shown a bit of form lately in beating fognini and taking a set from monfils. However, it must be remembered that devvarman only has a 54% record (14-12) with most his wins coming in qualies which chuid's ranking has frequently got him to miss. I believe chuidinelli has the exdperience which can never be underestimated at a gs and i will take him at odds against to beat the admittedly on form qualifier.
Potential Profit £43.20
There we have it, two dodgy selections. Had considered ggl and de bakker but for value and injury questions respectively quickly moved on. I think that should be me for the day on a tough enough day for punting. Wouldn't be too surprised to see either match go 5 sets.
Bank now stands at £925
Thursday, 20 May 2010
Additional Thursday Selection
£60 on Monfils to beat Starace at 1.58
I'm sorry but this is one i can't resist. I know monfils was simply woeful yesterday but he is simply of a higher standard to starace. I know he may have personal problems but i believe after that performance yesterday he will be looking to seriously improve with rg. I know there is the arguement that he has had his prep and will be happy to move onto rg now.
I am completely against this. Monfils has proved very consistent as a favourite on clay in the past years. As well as this, he always performs well in france. I believe this will continue today as he will come back to form. As poor as he was yesterday, he found a way to get through it and won the last two sets with comfort, which bodes well. The fact he is in france will have him motivated and above 1.5 i'll give it a go, as i thought the price would be around 1.4.
Potential Profit £34.80
Bank lies at £1000
I'm sorry but this is one i can't resist. I know monfils was simply woeful yesterday but he is simply of a higher standard to starace. I know he may have personal problems but i believe after that performance yesterday he will be looking to seriously improve with rg. I know there is the arguement that he has had his prep and will be happy to move onto rg now.
I am completely against this. Monfils has proved very consistent as a favourite on clay in the past years. As well as this, he always performs well in france. I believe this will continue today as he will come back to form. As poor as he was yesterday, he found a way to get through it and won the last two sets with comfort, which bodes well. The fact he is in france will have him motivated and above 1.5 i'll give it a go, as i thought the price would be around 1.4.
Potential Profit £34.80
Bank lies at £1000
Thurday's fight
£30 on hewitt vs almagro at 3
Hewitt looked very composed against big serving john isner at the start of the week, comfortably taking advantage of an understrength big man. He is always motivated when playing for his country as it seems all matches he's involved in. Today he faces nicolas almagro who was beat in three by berdych and beat ginepri in a third set tb, following his sf at madrid He has looked agitated all week in his body language and looks like a man who doesn't want to be there. Hewitt is a good returner which will weaken his weapon in the serve and i see almagro getting frustrated in what will inevitably be a tight match, and his back of the court groundstrokes could see errors as his frustration grows. I'll give hewitt a go as i can trus his motivation against a man surely tiring who may be looking towards rg.
Potential Profit £60
Hewitt looked very composed against big serving john isner at the start of the week, comfortably taking advantage of an understrength big man. He is always motivated when playing for his country as it seems all matches he's involved in. Today he faces nicolas almagro who was beat in three by berdych and beat ginepri in a third set tb, following his sf at madrid He has looked agitated all week in his body language and looks like a man who doesn't want to be there. Hewitt is a good returner which will weaken his weapon in the serve and i see almagro getting frustrated in what will inevitably be a tight match, and his back of the court groundstrokes could see errors as his frustration grows. I'll give hewitt a go as i can trus his motivation against a man surely tiring who may be looking towards rg.
Potential Profit £60
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
Another Tank
Well played Mayer. Much better player. Another clear tank in the 2nd set showing how dodgy it is to bet the week before the slam, especially on favourites. Still though, well played mayer on a good performance showing bellucci should never have been 1.4 pre match. Another poor selection and i think i might give it a break until french. Disappointing
Wednesday's Starter
£99.80 on bellucci to beat mayer at 1.41
This is a bet i tried to talk myself out of this morning as mayer is a player of potential that i rate and bellucci threw in a stinker last week vs monaco and his motivation here could be questionable. For a start bellucci was coming off a davis cup flight from brazil the weekend before and the jetlag possibly caught up with him. Further i think a match up with pace, such as vs mayer, is more in bellucci's favour than the match up vs monaco, a good defender where bellucci will have to create his own pace.
Also, bellucci has had a consistent clay court season in europe after a great sa swing. He is 6-4, only losing to players it is acceptable to lose to, novak, ferrer, monaco and kohli (3rd set tb). Despite mayer being a south american, i believe he is more comfortable on faster hard courts, making his power game more effective. Further, he comes into the match with some question marks. He withdrew from doubles due to an elbow injury in belgrade before retiring against wawa due to shoulder and elbow injuries in madrid. He only scrapped past guez in the last round and will seriously have to up his game to beat bellucci
Mayer also seems to have his struggles against left handers. He is 3-7 for his last ten, beating del bonnis, out of form zverev and berrer at a challenger, losing to dabul, zverev and ball among other. His career record lies at 17-18 highlighting his struggles. Further, bellucci holds a 2-1 h2h winning the most recent two. He was in control of the most recent encounter on clay before losing his concentration and inexplicably losing the second before winning the third 6-1. I watched the match and thought bellucci matched up quite well vs mayer and if he is motivated, keeps his concentration and plays to a decent level, he should beat mayer, who struggled past guez in r1. Bellucci has won his last 16 between 1.2 and 1.5, highlighting his consistency when favoured recently.
Potential Profit £40.90
Bank now 1090
This is a bet i tried to talk myself out of this morning as mayer is a player of potential that i rate and bellucci threw in a stinker last week vs monaco and his motivation here could be questionable. For a start bellucci was coming off a davis cup flight from brazil the weekend before and the jetlag possibly caught up with him. Further i think a match up with pace, such as vs mayer, is more in bellucci's favour than the match up vs monaco, a good defender where bellucci will have to create his own pace.
Also, bellucci has had a consistent clay court season in europe after a great sa swing. He is 6-4, only losing to players it is acceptable to lose to, novak, ferrer, monaco and kohli (3rd set tb). Despite mayer being a south american, i believe he is more comfortable on faster hard courts, making his power game more effective. Further, he comes into the match with some question marks. He withdrew from doubles due to an elbow injury in belgrade before retiring against wawa due to shoulder and elbow injuries in madrid. He only scrapped past guez in the last round and will seriously have to up his game to beat bellucci
Mayer also seems to have his struggles against left handers. He is 3-7 for his last ten, beating del bonnis, out of form zverev and berrer at a challenger, losing to dabul, zverev and ball among other. His career record lies at 17-18 highlighting his struggles. Further, bellucci holds a 2-1 h2h winning the most recent two. He was in control of the most recent encounter on clay before losing his concentration and inexplicably losing the second before winning the third 6-1. I watched the match and thought bellucci matched up quite well vs mayer and if he is motivated, keeps his concentration and plays to a decent level, he should beat mayer, who struggled past guez in r1. Bellucci has won his last 16 between 1.2 and 1.5, highlighting his consistency when favoured recently.
Potential Profit £40.90
Bank now 1090
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
OH NO!
Seppi completely woeful. Terrible betting on him as a heavy fav as he has proved once again this year what an inconsistent performer he really is. Bad bet and will do well getting out of this day with a small but insignificant loss. Funny, seppi is a player who always hopelessly lets me down but i still end up backing him. Black list for some time now. Depressed here!
110 on serra at 1.32
Serra at playing this week in front of home fans should have too much for marchenko who despite being an improving player is very limited on clay. Serra on the other hand is handy on clay, plus with extra motivation of home fans should be enough to see him over the line.
Potential Profit £35.20
£96 on seppi at 1.42
Playing against another limited clay performer in stak. Seppi should view this tournament as a good chance to get some ranking points as many of his rivals' motivation has to be questionable. Seppi has won 14 of last 18 when favoured on clay, whereas stak has a win % of below 50% on the dirt. Seppi a higher class on the dirt and should shine through today.
Potential Profit £40.30
£25 on Dolgoplov to beat montanes at 3.1
Dolgo on good form last week wher he gunned down andres seppi easily before being beat by nadal quite respectably with the match relatively close. Monty is a player who can be very good or bad at 1st round matches. At a look at his recent results in 1st rounds he has lost to lorenzi and chardy, both players he should be beating. With the french around the corner he might have his mind elsewhere and against and up and coming player such as dolgo with his youthful exhuberance meaning he is unlikely to tank, this could prove fatal. Further, montanes looked to have an injury last week which he will further looking to protect for next week if it surfaces at all.
Potential Profit £52.50
£25 on Zeballos to beat Kohlschreiber at 3
Zeba looked really motivated the other day because as well as being proud of his homeland and this being a motivation, as i said a few days ago, he also knows the importance of this year for him. He must start moving up the rankings before it is too late. Today he faces kohli who was woeful the other day vs chardy. He looked like he was elsewhere and if this is the case today he will be embarassed again. Kohli performed well at rg last year, beating djoker, and will be looking to defend his ranking by a big performance again. His mind could be elsewhere and i will take the motivated zeba to take him out.
Potential Profit £50
There we go then. A day of four bets believe it or not. This is risky the week before a slam but i am confident of my selections motivation while questioning some of their opponents. Still, wish me luck.
Current Bank £980
Serra at playing this week in front of home fans should have too much for marchenko who despite being an improving player is very limited on clay. Serra on the other hand is handy on clay, plus with extra motivation of home fans should be enough to see him over the line.
Potential Profit £35.20
£96 on seppi at 1.42
Playing against another limited clay performer in stak. Seppi should view this tournament as a good chance to get some ranking points as many of his rivals' motivation has to be questionable. Seppi has won 14 of last 18 when favoured on clay, whereas stak has a win % of below 50% on the dirt. Seppi a higher class on the dirt and should shine through today.
Potential Profit £40.30
£25 on Dolgoplov to beat montanes at 3.1
Dolgo on good form last week wher he gunned down andres seppi easily before being beat by nadal quite respectably with the match relatively close. Monty is a player who can be very good or bad at 1st round matches. At a look at his recent results in 1st rounds he has lost to lorenzi and chardy, both players he should be beating. With the french around the corner he might have his mind elsewhere and against and up and coming player such as dolgo with his youthful exhuberance meaning he is unlikely to tank, this could prove fatal. Further, montanes looked to have an injury last week which he will further looking to protect for next week if it surfaces at all.
Potential Profit £52.50
£25 on Zeballos to beat Kohlschreiber at 3
Zeba looked really motivated the other day because as well as being proud of his homeland and this being a motivation, as i said a few days ago, he also knows the importance of this year for him. He must start moving up the rankings before it is too late. Today he faces kohli who was woeful the other day vs chardy. He looked like he was elsewhere and if this is the case today he will be embarassed again. Kohli performed well at rg last year, beating djoker, and will be looking to defend his ranking by a big performance again. His mind could be elsewhere and i will take the motivated zeba to take him out.
Potential Profit £50
There we go then. A day of four bets believe it or not. This is risky the week before a slam but i am confident of my selections motivation while questioning some of their opponents. Still, wish me luck.
Current Bank £980
Monday, 17 May 2010
Sunday, 16 May 2010
Madrid Sunday
Must say that i believe it was a real even game and the match came down to who was better mentally and there was only one winner there. In total fed and nadal each won 50% of the points each but unfortunately nadal's 50% were the more important 1/2. Fed lost 4 bps at 5-4 first set and fell from 5-2 to 5-7 in the tb. If he had been stronger mentally he could easily have won as nadal was far from his brilliant best but ultimately done enough to win.
Bank remains at £1188.50.
Will be back tomorrow.
Bank remains at £1188.50.
Will be back tomorrow.
Sunday Update
Well there we go a relatively comfortable win for Heracio. He is now 25 and will have to kick on now as he doesn't have endless time left in his career. I believe Filip Krajinovic showed once again that he is a player of talent as he posses good ground strokes and a decent all round game, while also moving well. However, at this stage in his career he is inexperienced and lacks consistency, which should should improve in time. It remains to be seen how far up the rankings he can go. Zeballos played his break points faced very well which was the main difference today
This all means that i can sit back and enjoy today's game as there is guaranteed profit for the day (no matter how small!). Hopefully fed can show what a great player he is and get the job done. The bank is currently at £1188.50 with hopefully more to be added.
This all means that i can sit back and enjoy today's game as there is guaranteed profit for the day (no matter how small!). Hopefully fed can show what a great player he is and get the job done. The bank is currently at £1188.50 with hopefully more to be added.
Sunday Pride
£90 on Zeballos against Krajinovic at 1.45
Betting on a tourni the week before a slam is not to be greatly recommended, so i will keep it in moderation for the week. I saw some of the match from a few weeks ago in serbia and believe it is an occassion where you have to say it is just your day as it was his week. From his first round vs Donskov where he won the second set on a tie break (after being on the brink of defeat) before coasting the deciding set. Then against zeballos he won 7-5 in the deciding 3rd set tb, before a poorly conditioned novak had to retire injured in the qtrs before he was finally found out in the semis against querrey.
He is a player still very inexperienced (as is zeb but to a much less degree) at this level and the fact this is not in front of his home fans is another factor as he is yet to impress at any other atp event. I believe zeb hasn't been at his best in the past months but if he loses this match he really will have to consider where his career is going. He will be motivated as he is representing his country and will be keen to overturn that embarassing loss as once is just about acceptable in serbia but a second away from serbia would be unnacceptable.
Potential Profit £40.50 before commission.
Bank now £1060
Betting on a tourni the week before a slam is not to be greatly recommended, so i will keep it in moderation for the week. I saw some of the match from a few weeks ago in serbia and believe it is an occassion where you have to say it is just your day as it was his week. From his first round vs Donskov where he won the second set on a tie break (after being on the brink of defeat) before coasting the deciding set. Then against zeballos he won 7-5 in the deciding 3rd set tb, before a poorly conditioned novak had to retire injured in the qtrs before he was finally found out in the semis against querrey.
He is a player still very inexperienced (as is zeb but to a much less degree) at this level and the fact this is not in front of his home fans is another factor as he is yet to impress at any other atp event. I believe zeb hasn't been at his best in the past months but if he loses this match he really will have to consider where his career is going. He will be motivated as he is representing his country and will be keen to overturn that embarassing loss as once is just about acceptable in serbia but a second away from serbia would be unnacceptable.
Potential Profit £40.50 before commission.
Bank now £1060
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Saturday, 15 May 2010
Sunday Bet
£30 on Federer to beat Nadal at 3.5
Normally I wouldn't even think about betting on Fed to beat Rafa on clay but the circumstances here are totally different as they were last year when fed got the job done. Firstly the court conditions are in firmly in Fed's favour, more so than any other clay court with the altitude making the ball fly in the air. Further the game will be played in the middle of the day which will only highten the speed of the ball through the air. This should make fed's service games much easier to rattle through as was the case for most of today and the last two sets yesterday.
We have seen at times this week that nadal is beatable on these pacier clay courts, if the right calibre of player with good tactics faces him, which has not really happened yet (although almagro did for a set). He was pushed hard today by almagro,losing the first set in which he dropped his serve 3 times. He will have to be much better on serve vs fed as the goat will be very hard to break with the conditions. I believe if fed must beat nadal tomorrow if he is to beat him in RG as these are courts much more in his favour. At the price i'll give it a go. Be good and the best of luck to anyone following my blog.
Potential Profit £75
New Bank £1150
Normally I wouldn't even think about betting on Fed to beat Rafa on clay but the circumstances here are totally different as they were last year when fed got the job done. Firstly the court conditions are in firmly in Fed's favour, more so than any other clay court with the altitude making the ball fly in the air. Further the game will be played in the middle of the day which will only highten the speed of the ball through the air. This should make fed's service games much easier to rattle through as was the case for most of today and the last two sets yesterday.
We have seen at times this week that nadal is beatable on these pacier clay courts, if the right calibre of player with good tactics faces him, which has not really happened yet (although almagro did for a set). He was pushed hard today by almagro,losing the first set in which he dropped his serve 3 times. He will have to be much better on serve vs fed as the goat will be very hard to break with the conditions. I believe if fed must beat nadal tomorrow if he is to beat him in RG as these are courts much more in his favour. At the price i'll give it a go. Be good and the best of luck to anyone following my blog.
Potential Profit £75
New Bank £1150
Saturday Update
Watched most of the match last night and must say i was very frustrated with murray. His attitude and on court behaviour was appalling ( more so than usual) in great contast to the old dog ferrer, with his tactics poor also. He simply doesn't seem to have the same belief on this surface. I believe the game was there for him but he got a little passive on the big points. In fact when he went behind in both sets, we saw an improvement as he was taking more risks. His first serve % was also extremely poor also taking away his control in many points. There were some better signs but overall it was poor.
Moving onto today i see both ferrer and almagro putting it up to fed and rafa but hard to see anything other than a fed rafa final. Believe fed ferrer will be quite a bit closer but with a 10-0 h2h and his improving form I see fed as the likely winner. He is currently trading below 1.5 which i simply cannot etertain as ferrer has burnt me twice this week, he is eager and will be looking to continue his form in front of fans. I will keep an eye on things but i believe there will be no bets today.
Moving onto today i see both ferrer and almagro putting it up to fed and rafa but hard to see anything other than a fed rafa final. Believe fed ferrer will be quite a bit closer but with a 10-0 h2h and his improving form I see fed as the likely winner. He is currently trading below 1.5 which i simply cannot etertain as ferrer has burnt me twice this week, he is eager and will be looking to continue his form in front of fans. I will keep an eye on things but i believe there will be no bets today.
Friday, 14 May 2010
Friday Bets
I'm back. Decent day with the most likely outcomes in my bets coming true. Only saw a little of monfils match and missed the other two. If anyone would like to give their opinions on how the games went are more than welcome. All games seemed relatively straight forward with fed's and ferrer's result more so. Missed the tennis today but with such short and long prices unlikely i would have been involved. One bet for the day, which will be unpopular.
£38.60 on muzza to beat ferrer at 2.48
Murray's game has looked to be getting back to where it should be. He has been striking the ball well better getting more weight and depth on the ball which will be imperative against ferrer's baseline game.
I watched his match vs ferrer a few of weeks ago and thought he was well in the match. His attitude was quite poor, however, and he didn't seem to believe and he lost many of the game changing points through poor tactics. He is hitting better now and the belief seems to be slowly coming back. Further the conditions are more in his favour this time with the courts faster and the altitude factor.
Ferrer has looked tired at times this tourament, against baggy mainly, (although he seemed to give cilic a decent beating...doh). Like verdy ( who i had also predicted would struggle this tourni) he has had a tough schedule and i think this could come to surface today. I will take a fresher murray to take him out at odds against. It will not be easy against a wily ferrer playing in his country on the dirt but i believe he has a good chance and is worth a little interest.
Potential Profit £57.10
Bank now stands at £1180.
Just to note for all the number crunchers, since i began on Sunday (the day before the blog started) and before today, i have placed 15 bets (counting karlo and 2-0 lay as seperate bets, counting the lay as 2.68 back for excel purposes). Out of the 15 bets, five have been odds against and ten odds on. Amazingly all odds on have won and all the odds against were beaten (hopefully the the first win to come tonight). The av price for the 15 has been 2.142 at an av stake of £72.30. The highest odd is 6 and lowest has been 1.23. The current proft is at £218.60, with a total cost of £1085.20 at a strike rate of 20.14375, which in all probabilty will only fall.
Think this is all accurate and any comments very welcome.
£38.60 on muzza to beat ferrer at 2.48
Murray's game has looked to be getting back to where it should be. He has been striking the ball well better getting more weight and depth on the ball which will be imperative against ferrer's baseline game.
I watched his match vs ferrer a few of weeks ago and thought he was well in the match. His attitude was quite poor, however, and he didn't seem to believe and he lost many of the game changing points through poor tactics. He is hitting better now and the belief seems to be slowly coming back. Further the conditions are more in his favour this time with the courts faster and the altitude factor.
Ferrer has looked tired at times this tourament, against baggy mainly, (although he seemed to give cilic a decent beating...doh). Like verdy ( who i had also predicted would struggle this tourni) he has had a tough schedule and i think this could come to surface today. I will take a fresher murray to take him out at odds against. It will not be easy against a wily ferrer playing in his country on the dirt but i believe he has a good chance and is worth a little interest.
Potential Profit £57.10
Bank now stands at £1180.
Just to note for all the number crunchers, since i began on Sunday (the day before the blog started) and before today, i have placed 15 bets (counting karlo and 2-0 lay as seperate bets, counting the lay as 2.68 back for excel purposes). Out of the 15 bets, five have been odds against and ten odds on. Amazingly all odds on have won and all the odds against were beaten (hopefully the the first win to come tonight). The av price for the 15 has been 2.142 at an av stake of £72.30. The highest odd is 6 and lowest has been 1.23. The current proft is at £218.60, with a total cost of £1085.20 at a strike rate of 20.14375, which in all probabilty will only fall.
Think this is all accurate and any comments very welcome.
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Thursday Update
This will be my last post until some time tomorrow. I will hopefully be back to bet on the later games. Tight day for the blog today, already regretting the monfils bet a little as it is a gamble on his mental state and fitness. Hopefully he approaches the game right and gets the job done.
Best of luck to all readers. Just a note to say i see cilic is at 150/1 for madrid on sportingbet and surely worth a few pennies e/w (Cue an easy straight sets victory for ferrer today) considering he's in the far side of the draw to nadal and with the courts being so fast he has a chance vs anyone-although hard to see him beat a fully fit and focused federer, but questionable we will see that. Unfortunately i have been restricted on there so can't get the pennies ready. Be back tomorrow with hopefully quite a larger bank.
Best of luck to all readers. Just a note to say i see cilic is at 150/1 for madrid on sportingbet and surely worth a few pennies e/w (Cue an easy straight sets victory for ferrer today) considering he's in the far side of the draw to nadal and with the courts being so fast he has a chance vs anyone-although hard to see him beat a fully fit and focused federer, but questionable we will see that. Unfortunately i have been restricted on there so can't get the pennies ready. Be back tomorrow with hopefully quite a larger bank.
Going to bed last night i left my three selections of gulbis, federer and monfils to be matched. Gulbis' was unmatched and he continues to trade around 1.33.
£71.10 on Monfils to beat GGL at 1.77
This is based on a feeling. I believe the good monfils will surface today. However, this is dodgy as monfils lacks the match practice and ggl is in the form of his life on his home courts. I just don't think ggl has the mentality to beat the top players when they are on form. With the french around the corner i will take monfils to up his game and have enough to get through this tough tie. The price is now rising (currently around 1.85...doh!) and he could seemingly go off at around the same price as ggl. Badly played.
Potential Profit £54.70
110 on Federer to beat wawa at an av of just above 1.48
Yes this is a masters and fed's motivation is questionable. But simarilily to monfils with french around the corner i believe he has the capacity to up his game. He was trading at 1.43 last night i put in a few backs at 1.47, 1.48 and 1.5. I couldn't believe it to see his price had at some stage went above 1.7. My feeling here is that the extra pace on these courts will really help feds game as it did last year. I was expecting a price closer to 1.3 so at the price thought he was worth a go.
I remember the meeting last year that wawa won when he caught fed on the hop. Don't get me wrong wawa was impressive but fed wasn't there mentally. Today fed will be expecting a tough test and knows that once again people are asking questions of him. I thoroughly expect him to up his game and win a quite possible tight game. Further, wawa has looked a little tired in last week and maybe his schedule could catch up with him.
Potential Profit £53.20
£35 on Cilic to beat ferrer at 2.8
On watching some of ferrer's match last night it was clear to see once again the fight that the wily campaigner has. In saying that at 1-1 4-2 40-0 baggy should have went for the throat. He looked beat at this point but following a few ue's from baggy you could see ferrer get his second wind and believe he was still there. When he broke for 4-3, he had gathered such momentum that it was clear he was the likely eventual winner as it seemed to take a bit out of baggy.
Looking to this match, i believe the pressure is once again fully on ferrer. Cilic is the real underdog, with not many expecting him to beat ferrer at this stage on a clay court. This could suit cilic as he can go out and play his game safe in the knowledge that if he loses no-one will pass much attention but if he wins it will be a huge result.
The reasoning behind this is that the courts aren't you're usual clay courts that ferrer loves grinding results out on. These are courts with much more pace and the altitude should help cilic's power game. Ferrer looked to be really struggling at times last night and done very well to see off the cypriot. He looks a little tired and the tough schedule since feb that has seen him perform excellantly on the sa and european clay looks to have taken its toll. Add to the that the tough slog that he had in seeing off marcos and you get the feeling it really could get to him. With cilic's power game and big serve, it will take a big effort from ferrer to see it through and at around 7/4 is worth a shot.
The h2h is 2-1 in ferrer's favour, with all games coming on the hard, showing what a tough match up this is for cilic as on cilic has the better game you would think. Overall, i will take the fresh player who looked in decent nick in munich and has seemed at home with the extra pace here.
Potential Pofit £63
Bank stands at £935
I have upped the stakes a little and it is clear the selections all have an element of guessing which player will turn up in them. This should be a tight day with all games looking close. Good luck all and this should be me for the day
£71.10 on Monfils to beat GGL at 1.77
This is based on a feeling. I believe the good monfils will surface today. However, this is dodgy as monfils lacks the match practice and ggl is in the form of his life on his home courts. I just don't think ggl has the mentality to beat the top players when they are on form. With the french around the corner i will take monfils to up his game and have enough to get through this tough tie. The price is now rising (currently around 1.85...doh!) and he could seemingly go off at around the same price as ggl. Badly played.
Potential Profit £54.70
110 on Federer to beat wawa at an av of just above 1.48
Yes this is a masters and fed's motivation is questionable. But simarilily to monfils with french around the corner i believe he has the capacity to up his game. He was trading at 1.43 last night i put in a few backs at 1.47, 1.48 and 1.5. I couldn't believe it to see his price had at some stage went above 1.7. My feeling here is that the extra pace on these courts will really help feds game as it did last year. I was expecting a price closer to 1.3 so at the price thought he was worth a go.
I remember the meeting last year that wawa won when he caught fed on the hop. Don't get me wrong wawa was impressive but fed wasn't there mentally. Today fed will be expecting a tough test and knows that once again people are asking questions of him. I thoroughly expect him to up his game and win a quite possible tight game. Further, wawa has looked a little tired in last week and maybe his schedule could catch up with him.
Potential Profit £53.20
£35 on Cilic to beat ferrer at 2.8
On watching some of ferrer's match last night it was clear to see once again the fight that the wily campaigner has. In saying that at 1-1 4-2 40-0 baggy should have went for the throat. He looked beat at this point but following a few ue's from baggy you could see ferrer get his second wind and believe he was still there. When he broke for 4-3, he had gathered such momentum that it was clear he was the likely eventual winner as it seemed to take a bit out of baggy.
Looking to this match, i believe the pressure is once again fully on ferrer. Cilic is the real underdog, with not many expecting him to beat ferrer at this stage on a clay court. This could suit cilic as he can go out and play his game safe in the knowledge that if he loses no-one will pass much attention but if he wins it will be a huge result.
The reasoning behind this is that the courts aren't you're usual clay courts that ferrer loves grinding results out on. These are courts with much more pace and the altitude should help cilic's power game. Ferrer looked to be really struggling at times last night and done very well to see off the cypriot. He looks a little tired and the tough schedule since feb that has seen him perform excellantly on the sa and european clay looks to have taken its toll. Add to the that the tough slog that he had in seeing off marcos and you get the feeling it really could get to him. With cilic's power game and big serve, it will take a big effort from ferrer to see it through and at around 7/4 is worth a shot.
The h2h is 2-1 in ferrer's favour, with all games coming on the hard, showing what a tough match up this is for cilic as on cilic has the better game you would think. Overall, i will take the fresh player who looked in decent nick in munich and has seemed at home with the extra pace here.
Potential Pofit £63
Bank stands at £935
I have upped the stakes a little and it is clear the selections all have an element of guessing which player will turn up in them. This should be a tight day with all games looking close. Good luck all and this should be me for the day
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
Wednesday Analysis
Much improved from murray but still a lot of improvement needed. Chela played ok, making some nice shots but trying to force it a little as he knew he was simply up against a better player. Overall murray always seemed in control and even at a break down, it was hard to see chela win a set as his serve was always under threat with murray really attacking his second serve. In fact chela only won 45% of points on serve.
An unadventurous pick to be honest as i don't think there were too many (if anyone including chela) who thought chela could win today.
I didn't get to even follow much of bellucci's match but a very disappointing result as i believed conditions would favour him but maybe the trip to Brazil at the weekend along with his tough schedule in the last few weeks finally caught up with him.
A disappointing day today, down £8.90 but not too bad. Thought roddick was a good thing today but glad he didn't play as if he wasn't right mentally it would have been a tough game. That is me for the day.
Just to note, i mentioned earlier i thought tsonga might be a bet today. Since that there have been reports of an injury to jo and since that his price rose to over 1.8 before going back down around 1.5 to roughly where it started but he is currently trading around 1.65. Definately one to avoid.
Looking to tomorrow, some interesting match ups. Before any prices are up would be interested in gulbis, almagro, and maybe cilic (i know) or monfils, but all depending on price.
A final note to say seemingly I was right to doubt schwank yesterday after his terrible result today but wrong to put any faith in phm atm, he really is seemingly nowhere near his proper form. I did think about cilic today but had to avoid as he is yet to convince me on clay yet and below 1.4 it was far too big a risk.
Good luck to anyone reading!
Bank stands £1151.10
An unadventurous pick to be honest as i don't think there were too many (if anyone including chela) who thought chela could win today.
I didn't get to even follow much of bellucci's match but a very disappointing result as i believed conditions would favour him but maybe the trip to Brazil at the weekend along with his tough schedule in the last few weeks finally caught up with him.
A disappointing day today, down £8.90 but not too bad. Thought roddick was a good thing today but glad he didn't play as if he wasn't right mentally it would have been a tough game. That is me for the day.
Just to note, i mentioned earlier i thought tsonga might be a bet today. Since that there have been reports of an injury to jo and since that his price rose to over 1.8 before going back down around 1.5 to roughly where it started but he is currently trading around 1.65. Definately one to avoid.
Looking to tomorrow, some interesting match ups. Before any prices are up would be interested in gulbis, almagro, and maybe cilic (i know) or monfils, but all depending on price.
A final note to say seemingly I was right to doubt schwank yesterday after his terrible result today but wrong to put any faith in phm atm, he really is seemingly nowhere near his proper form. I did think about cilic today but had to avoid as he is yet to convince me on clay yet and below 1.4 it was far too big a risk.
Good luck to anyone reading!
Bank stands £1151.10
£165 on Murray to beat chela at 1.23
This is in no reaction to having a bad day. The more i look into this match the more i think how can chela possibly beat murray. Chela has been a fading force in the past few years and though he mainly only plays on the dirt i don't think he possesses the game or the hunger to beat a top 20 player any more, never mind a top 5 player. I watched him a few weeks back playing monaco and even from breaks up he never looked likely to win even a set.
Murray has had a woeful time since the aus open, which has obviously affected him. However, he will be looking to have some form before the french open and the extra pace at madrid will suit him.With hanescu in wait murray is likely to fancy his chances of having a decent run and getting back to winning games again and giving himself another go in all likelihood at david ferrer. I rarely bet under 1.3 but this is an exception as i can only see one winner.
Look at the RG meeting (and he won the three before so comfortably albiet not on clay but before he was a top 20 player back back in 06/7!) and you get the idea what i'm saying. I don't think chela has the weapons to take murray out.
Potential profit £37.90
This is in no reaction to having a bad day. The more i look into this match the more i think how can chela possibly beat murray. Chela has been a fading force in the past few years and though he mainly only plays on the dirt i don't think he possesses the game or the hunger to beat a top 20 player any more, never mind a top 5 player. I watched him a few weeks back playing monaco and even from breaks up he never looked likely to win even a set.
Murray has had a woeful time since the aus open, which has obviously affected him. However, he will be looking to have some form before the french open and the extra pace at madrid will suit him.With hanescu in wait murray is likely to fancy his chances of having a decent run and getting back to winning games again and giving himself another go in all likelihood at david ferrer. I rarely bet under 1.3 but this is an exception as i can only see one winner.
Look at the RG meeting (and he won the three before so comfortably albiet not on clay but before he was a top 20 player back back in 06/7!) and you get the idea what i'm saying. I don't think chela has the weapons to take murray out.
Potential profit £37.90
Wednesday update
Sorry guys hectic day here. Think from now on i will pick my selections at the start of the day to avoid this.
£45 on Bellucci at 2.04 to win £46.80
Think with the conditions in his favour for his big serve should have enough to take out monaco. Question marks hang over the argentinian who has postponed surgery until after the french. Bellucci has shown better form on the clay with all three defeats coming against good players.
I have taken the young up and coming star but unfortunately monaco currently leads 4-1 in the first set, winning over 2/3 of the points so far, and bellucci is available at 3.75. Long way to go though and can see this going distance.
Potential profit £46.80
Bank 1045
£45 on Bellucci at 2.04 to win £46.80
Think with the conditions in his favour for his big serve should have enough to take out monaco. Question marks hang over the argentinian who has postponed surgery until after the french. Bellucci has shown better form on the clay with all three defeats coming against good players.
I have taken the young up and coming star but unfortunately monaco currently leads 4-1 in the first set, winning over 2/3 of the points so far, and bellucci is available at 3.75. Long way to go though and can see this going distance.
Potential profit £46.80
Bank 1045
Wednesday's Outlook
First and foremost i must say despite only having 2 followers and not recieving any comments the footfall for the site has been great with 322 pages read since i put up the counter yesterday. This has been a great response. Futher to the eight who ansered the poll i thank you and welcome anyone else to give their opinion positive or negative. Anyone to join as a follower or leave a comment greatly appreciated.
£70 on Roddick to beat Lopez at 1.67
I put four bets on waiting to be matched at big prices before I went to bed and this was the only one to get matched (although only some of it was and the rest was matched after i woke this morning as his price has seen a rise from the 1.6 it was this morning). First and foremost it is quite a risk taking roddick with no clay court action this year. At least he had doubles action to get used to the courts.
These are clay courts that both will enjoy due to the quick nature and the altitude and the fact that the game is played right in the middle of the day will only increase the pace. Having backed lopez to beat kubot, I was not overly impressed with him and believed the main reason for his win was the woeful performance from the pole who gifted him the breaks (lopez ridiculously giving two back in the second).
He looked uninsterested at times and if he performs in the same way he will struggle badly to break a-rod today. This year we have seen a more passive but more consistent roddick (with the exception vs nadal) and this consistency should help him defeat lopez today whose one handed bh was its useless self the other day, although the slice looked quite effective when used.
Roddick will be looking for some RG prep and so should be quite motivated as he would prefer a few games under his belt. He ran fed (eventual winner too) very close here last year, showing for a clay court that it is favourable for him. It is a game that we should see few breaks but i fancy roddick to stay cool under pressure and play the big points better, which will be vital. The same can't be said of lopez. Further, we could see tie-breaks today and roddick has a great record there.
He holds a 6-0 h2h and even if none have been on clay i believe the american is the bet at current prices. Only if we see the super lopez (which only appears a couple of times every year) can i see a focused and consistent roddick losing.
Potential profit £46.90
Bank now lies at £1090
I have looked at others including melzer, gulbis, bellucci, tsonga and monfils but i believe all to be a little shorter atm than i would back. Melzer was over 1.5 this morning which i would have been on but missed the price. Good luck to all and i should be back with further selections.
£70 on Roddick to beat Lopez at 1.67
I put four bets on waiting to be matched at big prices before I went to bed and this was the only one to get matched (although only some of it was and the rest was matched after i woke this morning as his price has seen a rise from the 1.6 it was this morning). First and foremost it is quite a risk taking roddick with no clay court action this year. At least he had doubles action to get used to the courts.
These are clay courts that both will enjoy due to the quick nature and the altitude and the fact that the game is played right in the middle of the day will only increase the pace. Having backed lopez to beat kubot, I was not overly impressed with him and believed the main reason for his win was the woeful performance from the pole who gifted him the breaks (lopez ridiculously giving two back in the second).
He looked uninsterested at times and if he performs in the same way he will struggle badly to break a-rod today. This year we have seen a more passive but more consistent roddick (with the exception vs nadal) and this consistency should help him defeat lopez today whose one handed bh was its useless self the other day, although the slice looked quite effective when used.
Roddick will be looking for some RG prep and so should be quite motivated as he would prefer a few games under his belt. He ran fed (eventual winner too) very close here last year, showing for a clay court that it is favourable for him. It is a game that we should see few breaks but i fancy roddick to stay cool under pressure and play the big points better, which will be vital. The same can't be said of lopez. Further, we could see tie-breaks today and roddick has a great record there.
He holds a 6-0 h2h and even if none have been on clay i believe the american is the bet at current prices. Only if we see the super lopez (which only appears a couple of times every year) can i see a focused and consistent roddick losing.
Potential profit £46.90
Bank now lies at £1090
I have looked at others including melzer, gulbis, bellucci, tsonga and monfils but i believe all to be a little shorter atm than i would back. Melzer was over 1.5 this morning which i would have been on but missed the price. Good luck to all and i should be back with further selections.
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Tuesday Report
Karlovic played a decent match. The fact that he barely produced a a first serve in the tie break meant there were no free points in it for him, making it a much easier task for verdasco. Despite this he led 5-4 in the tb while he also had two break points at the end of the first set and could easily have snuck that set for a healthy profit no matter what way the rest of the match went. The point verdy played to lose the mini break at 4-2 in the tb was shocking and showed he was getting a little tight.
The fact that he moves likes a beach whale on clay and his bh is as poor as ever made it a tough test for Ivo. However, verdy while looking slightly rattled at stages in the first set kept his cool well and will be happy to have made it past this tough test. He looked motivated in front of his fans and could be hard to beat now he has navagated the test of Dr Ivo.
Balance remains at £1160.
Haven't looked much much into tomorrow but should be back with any bets tomorrow. Good luck to anyone reading.
The fact that he moves likes a beach whale on clay and his bh is as poor as ever made it a tough test for Ivo. However, verdy while looking slightly rattled at stages in the first set kept his cool well and will be happy to have made it past this tough test. He looked motivated in front of his fans and could be hard to beat now he has navagated the test of Dr Ivo.
Balance remains at £1160.
Haven't looked much much into tomorrow but should be back with any bets tomorrow. Good luck to anyone reading.
Crazy Tuesday
To hell with it. Even though this is a night game i think the courts have been very fast for clay and there is no great sign of wind.
£15.40 on Ivo at 6 and £50 lay of verdy straight sets at 1.6 costing £30.
As mentioned earlier this game is all about verdy. If he approaches it properly and plays well he should win. He has been great on the dirt and if his form continues he should have enough. However I find verdy a very frustrating player as any time before he has seemed like stepping it up, there was a disappointment around the corner. Karlo's clay game is not as woeful as people think and he is a respectable 26-24 in last 50. Further this is one of the best clay courts for him. If karlo can serve well, and the conditions are in his favour, and reel off service holds, he will make verdy nervous and frustrated and hopefully can nick a tie break or two. The pressure is all on verdy and this may get to him as no one expects karlo to win today. To beat karlo you need patience and nerves, not verdy's main weapons. Further, karlo has a match under his belt to adjust to the surface and leads the h2h 3-1 (none on clay though) and all in all is worth a shot at the prices.
Potential profit £77.20 and £50 for the Lay
Bank lies at £1160
£15.40 on Ivo at 6 and £50 lay of verdy straight sets at 1.6 costing £30.
As mentioned earlier this game is all about verdy. If he approaches it properly and plays well he should win. He has been great on the dirt and if his form continues he should have enough. However I find verdy a very frustrating player as any time before he has seemed like stepping it up, there was a disappointment around the corner. Karlo's clay game is not as woeful as people think and he is a respectable 26-24 in last 50. Further this is one of the best clay courts for him. If karlo can serve well, and the conditions are in his favour, and reel off service holds, he will make verdy nervous and frustrated and hopefully can nick a tie break or two. The pressure is all on verdy and this may get to him as no one expects karlo to win today. To beat karlo you need patience and nerves, not verdy's main weapons. Further, karlo has a match under his belt to adjust to the surface and leads the h2h 3-1 (none on clay though) and all in all is worth a shot at the prices.
Potential profit £77.20 and £50 for the Lay
Bank lies at £1160
Tuesday update
Four relatively comfortable straight set wins in my four bets. Three in my advantage and mathieu against me. Bellucci and Gulbis both lose first service games, to make me a little uncomfortable but recover to win relatively well.
These courts look to be playing very fast for a clay court from what i've seen. Based on that was thinking of backing berdych or karlovic. First up nalby has had a big layoff and hard to know what he'll produce. Berdy's price seems on the fall which has put me off as if berdych had of been around 2.2 or more i would have probably backed him.
As for karlovic didn't think i'd ever back him against verdy on a clay court. This is one im considering a lot however given the conditions may be well in karlo's favour. Verdy looked v tired last time against ferrer and may be looking towards RG and karlo is not the man to face without full concentration. This is not a given, however, as he has been off for around ten days now and could enter the week looking to find more form for rg. I remember backing karlo against verdy at wimb 09 as he was on a good run. Verdy while looking to be playing some nice stuff and looking relatively comfortable, lost his composure and lost a few vital points gifting karlo the match in 4. Verdy seems stronger mentally now however, and i remember him out gunning isner, who had just been through a final set tb with roddick round before. in us open 09. He like gulbis seems to have found the form he promised and his run on the dirt has been remarkable. I will give it a think and if price goes much bigger than now (around 5.7) I have to give it a go. Further, verdy is 1.66 to lay in straight sets which is another option.
There we go, any views would be appreciated. I think im mad even contemplating ivo but i have a little feeling. Isner is another who should win. I was expecting lower than current 1.35 but after last week's tame finish can't entertain backing him, even though i do think he really should win.
For the reocrd the bank stands at £1205.40. I might be back later with either karlo or berdych. Good luck
These courts look to be playing very fast for a clay court from what i've seen. Based on that was thinking of backing berdych or karlovic. First up nalby has had a big layoff and hard to know what he'll produce. Berdy's price seems on the fall which has put me off as if berdych had of been around 2.2 or more i would have probably backed him.
As for karlovic didn't think i'd ever back him against verdy on a clay court. This is one im considering a lot however given the conditions may be well in karlo's favour. Verdy looked v tired last time against ferrer and may be looking towards RG and karlo is not the man to face without full concentration. This is not a given, however, as he has been off for around ten days now and could enter the week looking to find more form for rg. I remember backing karlo against verdy at wimb 09 as he was on a good run. Verdy while looking to be playing some nice stuff and looking relatively comfortable, lost his composure and lost a few vital points gifting karlo the match in 4. Verdy seems stronger mentally now however, and i remember him out gunning isner, who had just been through a final set tb with roddick round before. in us open 09. He like gulbis seems to have found the form he promised and his run on the dirt has been remarkable. I will give it a think and if price goes much bigger than now (around 5.7) I have to give it a go. Further, verdy is 1.66 to lay in straight sets which is another option.
There we go, any views would be appreciated. I think im mad even contemplating ivo but i have a little feeling. Isner is another who should win. I was expecting lower than current 1.35 but after last week's tame finish can't entertain backing him, even though i do think he really should win.
For the reocrd the bank stands at £1205.40. I might be back later with either karlo or berdych. Good luck
Poor start
No pictures for Mathieu match but my bet never really seemed to get going. Even at a break in the second, I had a bad feeling. Without pictures it is hard to get an indication on mathieu's game but even stilli will need to see a great improvement in his form before i will part with cash on him again. Maybe i was forcing it a little as i don't want to be viewed as simply backing favs. I believe my reasoning on schwank was ok but i was depending on mathieu hitting form and this hadn't looked likely given his poor form.
Tuesday's Bets
81.30 on Garcia-Lopez at 1.53
Lopez is in the form of his life at an all time high ranking. He is playing in frot of his home fans who he has never really performed for and i believe his motivation should be high. His game should be helped by a pacey clay court played at altitude. The same could not be said for Gimeno a limited dirtballer, although with some decent wins lately, who makes his money mainly on the stuff rarely moving from it. He has only won 4 of his last 15 when odds against on the clay. Lopez is on good form 7-3 and there is guaranteed motivation and this should be enough to see off a decent but uninspiring gimeno.
Potential profit 43.10 before commission.
30 on Mathieu to beat schwank at 2.46
This is my first big on the blog above evens (although I did hav Further shwank has yet to impresse cilic on sun in my bank but before i joined). Anyway, schwank has lost 4 of the last 5 when fav between 1/2 and evs. This highlights his mentality as a fav. Further, schwank has yet to empress in Europe (10-12 last 12 months) with his best performances coming on the South American clay. I believe if Mathieu returns to some of his old form he should have too much as was the case in RG in 08 on only previous meeting. Essentially we know schwank is vulnerable but it all depends what phm turns up, but at almost 6/4 i believe he is worth a small investment.
Potential profit £43.80
These are my two current bets along with gulbis and bellucci for the day. Looking at a couple others possibly for later, but this should be it for the day. Good luck to anyone reading.
Lopez is in the form of his life at an all time high ranking. He is playing in frot of his home fans who he has never really performed for and i believe his motivation should be high. His game should be helped by a pacey clay court played at altitude. The same could not be said for Gimeno a limited dirtballer, although with some decent wins lately, who makes his money mainly on the stuff rarely moving from it. He has only won 4 of his last 15 when odds against on the clay. Lopez is on good form 7-3 and there is guaranteed motivation and this should be enough to see off a decent but uninspiring gimeno.
Potential profit 43.10 before commission.
30 on Mathieu to beat schwank at 2.46
This is my first big on the blog above evens (although I did hav Further shwank has yet to impresse cilic on sun in my bank but before i joined). Anyway, schwank has lost 4 of the last 5 when fav between 1/2 and evs. This highlights his mentality as a fav. Further, schwank has yet to empress in Europe (10-12 last 12 months) with his best performances coming on the South American clay. I believe if Mathieu returns to some of his old form he should have too much as was the case in RG in 08 on only previous meeting. Essentially we know schwank is vulnerable but it all depends what phm turns up, but at almost 6/4 i believe he is worth a small investment.
Potential profit £43.80
These are my two current bets along with gulbis and bellucci for the day. Looking at a couple others possibly for later, but this should be it for the day. Good luck to anyone reading.
Monday, 10 May 2010
Solid Start
In that we see the problems with backing feliciano lopez. After being quite comfortable on serve in the first set and rarely looking like breaking (in fact his break came by errors including the furthest out second serve i've ever seen at 30-30), from nowhere in the second he led by a set and double break at 1-0, 3-0, before being broken twice to level the match at 3-3. He ended up winning the next three games, breaking twice. Overall a quite patchy performance with his single handed bh lookeing even poorer than usual, and he was really gifted the match by kubots errors. Kubot really does look in poor form.
New bank 921.30 (with 2 bets pending)
New bank 921.30 (with 2 bets pending)
Lopez match is due soon. Mayer and monfils' matches on court now. To update the blog I actually ended up with more on lopez than earlier stated.
95.6 on Lopez at 1.5 ( I see he's now trading above 1.5 and he's been negative in most books today. Hopefully talk of his personal life won't come into this).
Potential Profit £47.80
The two bets I have already done are Gulbis and bellucci. Two young pretenders who have proved quite profitable over the last few weeks.
£80 on Gulbis at 1.6
The altitude should firstly be beneficial to his power game. He has shown over the past few weeks that when he wants to he has a game worthy of at top 10 material and on current form is one of the few players if on form that can trouble nadal. That's for a different day. He in albert montanes faces a good dirt baller. This can be seen in his recent victory in Estoril beating fed along the way. He is a player who usually follows up a good week with a lull in his next games. This can be seen when he got to qtrs in monte carlo, defeated in 3 by verdy, he followed it up with defeats against lorenzi and chardy. Further, when he won Budabest last year he was beat next game out vs mayer (granted there was a break but still).
In gulbis he faces a young man finally living up to his talent. Ever since the aus open he has been on fire, only getting beat by players it is acceptable to get beat by, mainly in the top 20. He is coming off a rest after a great rome tourni where he got to semis and i believe even if both were in good condition ernie would be a good shot at 1.6 as i don't see montanes having the weapons to beat gulbis. Essentially the game is on the gulbis racket. If he has a ue day without many winners he will find it tough or if he lets monty dictate and many rallies it will be a struggle. Essentially if gulis wants it, and plays well he should have more than enough for a tired monty.
Potential profit £48 before commission.
110 on Bellucci to beat Riba at 1.37
I believe bellucci has shown what a good player he is in recent weeks. He has only been beaten by ferrer, djoker and kohli (in 3rd tb) in last three tournies. The altitude will not worsen his game as he possesses a big awkard leftie serve. His top spin fhs should put riba well behind the baseline out of his comfort zone and force him into errors. Further Riba is a player mainly in challengers and against a player as consistent as bellucci has been at beating players he should it should be a step too far. Big step up for him to atp 1000's.
Potential Profit £39.60
Nothing inspiring yet but hope to get off to a nice solid start. Good luck to anyone reading.
95.6 on Lopez at 1.5 ( I see he's now trading above 1.5 and he's been negative in most books today. Hopefully talk of his personal life won't come into this).
Potential Profit £47.80
The two bets I have already done are Gulbis and bellucci. Two young pretenders who have proved quite profitable over the last few weeks.
£80 on Gulbis at 1.6
The altitude should firstly be beneficial to his power game. He has shown over the past few weeks that when he wants to he has a game worthy of at top 10 material and on current form is one of the few players if on form that can trouble nadal. That's for a different day. He in albert montanes faces a good dirt baller. This can be seen in his recent victory in Estoril beating fed along the way. He is a player who usually follows up a good week with a lull in his next games. This can be seen when he got to qtrs in monte carlo, defeated in 3 by verdy, he followed it up with defeats against lorenzi and chardy. Further, when he won Budabest last year he was beat next game out vs mayer (granted there was a break but still).
In gulbis he faces a young man finally living up to his talent. Ever since the aus open he has been on fire, only getting beat by players it is acceptable to get beat by, mainly in the top 20. He is coming off a rest after a great rome tourni where he got to semis and i believe even if both were in good condition ernie would be a good shot at 1.6 as i don't see montanes having the weapons to beat gulbis. Essentially the game is on the gulbis racket. If he has a ue day without many winners he will find it tough or if he lets monty dictate and many rallies it will be a struggle. Essentially if gulis wants it, and plays well he should have more than enough for a tired monty.
Potential profit £48 before commission.
110 on Bellucci to beat Riba at 1.37
I believe bellucci has shown what a good player he is in recent weeks. He has only been beaten by ferrer, djoker and kohli (in 3rd tb) in last three tournies. The altitude will not worsen his game as he possesses a big awkard leftie serve. His top spin fhs should put riba well behind the baseline out of his comfort zone and force him into errors. Further Riba is a player mainly in challengers and against a player as consistent as bellucci has been at beating players he should it should be a step too far. Big step up for him to atp 1000's.
Potential Profit £39.60
Nothing inspiring yet but hope to get off to a nice solid start. Good luck to anyone reading.
Looking forward
Today is a day where i contemplated many but think i'll stick with the one bet. Was thinking benny against as i was expecting a smaller price but due to his current form and conditioning can't back him. He looked woeful against volandri and this put me off. Mayer despite not making much noise at this level is in reasonable nick but surely is plenty short. Melzer was one also if he had of been 1.6 or over as he is a higher standard and matches up well good against big servers(apart from roddick). Didn't think it would be advisable to back melzer and lopez as first two bets, due to both being bad mentally questionable, ha. I see after a great 1st set melzer is again being himself and is well down in the second. Essentially anderson came through the qualies and seems to be in good nick and this was the reason i swerved. Was hoping to back giraldo as was expecting well above current prices but at around 1.66 i believe kohli may be a little value but i find it hard to back him at odds on against a player hot on form and through qualies.
Anyway onto tomorrow i have backed gulbis and bellucci as i believe their prices will drop. Will do write ups later
Anyway onto tomorrow i have backed gulbis and bellucci as i believe their prices will drop. Will do write ups later
Monday's bets
£80 on Lopez to beat Kubot at 1.5
Madrid is played at high altitude. This should be an advantage to Lopez with his powerful awkward serve. Kubot is a player in my opinion that can have good results as seen with some great vicories such as the one a poorly conditioned roddick and his run to the final in Brazil. However he was badly defeated in the final and his form has dropped off badly since. He has yet to impress in European clay and his only victory in last four tournies was clement and that includes one game in match vs starace. I never like backing lopez at odds on as he is poor mentally but he is usually consitent beating players he should on clay, only losing when odds against in a tourni on clayin the last year. Further Kubot has a poor career career record vs lefties 16-24 although he is 6-2 in last 8, losing the 6 before that. Overall he is a solid selection based on stats and current form.
Potential profit £40 before commission
Madrid is played at high altitude. This should be an advantage to Lopez with his powerful awkward serve. Kubot is a player in my opinion that can have good results as seen with some great vicories such as the one a poorly conditioned roddick and his run to the final in Brazil. However he was badly defeated in the final and his form has dropped off badly since. He has yet to impress in European clay and his only victory in last four tournies was clement and that includes one game in match vs starace. I never like backing lopez at odds on as he is poor mentally but he is usually consitent beating players he should on clay, only losing when odds against in a tourni on clayin the last year. Further Kubot has a poor career career record vs lefties 16-24 although he is 6-2 in last 8, losing the 6 before that. Overall he is a solid selection based on stats and current form.
Potential profit £40 before commission
A New Beginning
I have been betting on tennis now for a few years now. At the start it began as a little fun after a wimbledon, which i would follow religiously every year and then watch no tennis the rest.
I was poor and dabbled in accas on other accounts. This was before i realised betfair and their inflated prices. For the last year and a half i have been here and have moved on as a gambler and my knowledge is decent now but i hope through this thread it will be greatly improved through the obvious critiscism i will recieve. All constructive criticism is welcome.
Throughout my time here i would be in profit but quite modest profit. I have bet quite off the cuff. Usually i would select a player i thought was value and would dabble in play. This was time consuming and when hit a bad run my stakes may increase. I want a break from this type of gambling
I have now decided to put a bank into place, put in more research to my picks and just pick players outright and not alter in-play depending on my thoughts. I want to see with discipline if my outright selections can lead to a decent profit. I believe by recording everything here i can keep myself in check.
My other source of gambling on here has been laying football teams from the start based on value. This has been easy to stay disciplined as i would never look at the markets in play. This has proved profitbale since i started in around december.
As the football season is drawing to an end i have decided to put all my efforts into tennis and want to see how i perform. I started yesterday with a bank of £1000 and at the end of the day after backing karlovic, Dolgopolov Jr and cilic the bank now is 1067.30 which will be my start bank.
Wish me luck.
I was poor and dabbled in accas on other accounts. This was before i realised betfair and their inflated prices. For the last year and a half i have been here and have moved on as a gambler and my knowledge is decent now but i hope through this thread it will be greatly improved through the obvious critiscism i will recieve. All constructive criticism is welcome.
Throughout my time here i would be in profit but quite modest profit. I have bet quite off the cuff. Usually i would select a player i thought was value and would dabble in play. This was time consuming and when hit a bad run my stakes may increase. I want a break from this type of gambling
I have now decided to put a bank into place, put in more research to my picks and just pick players outright and not alter in-play depending on my thoughts. I want to see with discipline if my outright selections can lead to a decent profit. I believe by recording everything here i can keep myself in check.
My other source of gambling on here has been laying football teams from the start based on value. This has been easy to stay disciplined as i would never look at the markets in play. This has proved profitbale since i started in around december.
As the football season is drawing to an end i have decided to put all my efforts into tennis and want to see how i perform. I started yesterday with a bank of £1000 and at the end of the day after backing karlovic, Dolgopolov Jr and cilic the bank now is 1067.30 which will be my start bank.
Wish me luck.
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