Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Poor start
No pictures for Mathieu match but my bet never really seemed to get going. Even at a break in the second, I had a bad feeling. Without pictures it is hard to get an indication on mathieu's game but even stilli will need to see a great improvement in his form before i will part with cash on him again. Maybe i was forcing it a little as i don't want to be viewed as simply backing favs. I believe my reasoning on schwank was ok but i was depending on mathieu hitting form and this hadn't looked likely given his poor form.
Tuesday's Bets
81.30 on Garcia-Lopez at 1.53
Lopez is in the form of his life at an all time high ranking. He is playing in frot of his home fans who he has never really performed for and i believe his motivation should be high. His game should be helped by a pacey clay court played at altitude. The same could not be said for Gimeno a limited dirtballer, although with some decent wins lately, who makes his money mainly on the stuff rarely moving from it. He has only won 4 of his last 15 when odds against on the clay. Lopez is on good form 7-3 and there is guaranteed motivation and this should be enough to see off a decent but uninspiring gimeno.
Potential profit 43.10 before commission.
30 on Mathieu to beat schwank at 2.46
This is my first big on the blog above evens (although I did hav Further shwank has yet to impresse cilic on sun in my bank but before i joined). Anyway, schwank has lost 4 of the last 5 when fav between 1/2 and evs. This highlights his mentality as a fav. Further, schwank has yet to empress in Europe (10-12 last 12 months) with his best performances coming on the South American clay. I believe if Mathieu returns to some of his old form he should have too much as was the case in RG in 08 on only previous meeting. Essentially we know schwank is vulnerable but it all depends what phm turns up, but at almost 6/4 i believe he is worth a small investment.
Potential profit £43.80
These are my two current bets along with gulbis and bellucci for the day. Looking at a couple others possibly for later, but this should be it for the day. Good luck to anyone reading.
Lopez is in the form of his life at an all time high ranking. He is playing in frot of his home fans who he has never really performed for and i believe his motivation should be high. His game should be helped by a pacey clay court played at altitude. The same could not be said for Gimeno a limited dirtballer, although with some decent wins lately, who makes his money mainly on the stuff rarely moving from it. He has only won 4 of his last 15 when odds against on the clay. Lopez is on good form 7-3 and there is guaranteed motivation and this should be enough to see off a decent but uninspiring gimeno.
Potential profit 43.10 before commission.
30 on Mathieu to beat schwank at 2.46
This is my first big on the blog above evens (although I did hav Further shwank has yet to impresse cilic on sun in my bank but before i joined). Anyway, schwank has lost 4 of the last 5 when fav between 1/2 and evs. This highlights his mentality as a fav. Further, schwank has yet to empress in Europe (10-12 last 12 months) with his best performances coming on the South American clay. I believe if Mathieu returns to some of his old form he should have too much as was the case in RG in 08 on only previous meeting. Essentially we know schwank is vulnerable but it all depends what phm turns up, but at almost 6/4 i believe he is worth a small investment.
Potential profit £43.80
These are my two current bets along with gulbis and bellucci for the day. Looking at a couple others possibly for later, but this should be it for the day. Good luck to anyone reading.
Monday, 10 May 2010
Solid Start
In that we see the problems with backing feliciano lopez. After being quite comfortable on serve in the first set and rarely looking like breaking (in fact his break came by errors including the furthest out second serve i've ever seen at 30-30), from nowhere in the second he led by a set and double break at 1-0, 3-0, before being broken twice to level the match at 3-3. He ended up winning the next three games, breaking twice. Overall a quite patchy performance with his single handed bh lookeing even poorer than usual, and he was really gifted the match by kubots errors. Kubot really does look in poor form.
New bank 921.30 (with 2 bets pending)
New bank 921.30 (with 2 bets pending)
Lopez match is due soon. Mayer and monfils' matches on court now. To update the blog I actually ended up with more on lopez than earlier stated.
95.6 on Lopez at 1.5 ( I see he's now trading above 1.5 and he's been negative in most books today. Hopefully talk of his personal life won't come into this).
Potential Profit £47.80
The two bets I have already done are Gulbis and bellucci. Two young pretenders who have proved quite profitable over the last few weeks.
£80 on Gulbis at 1.6
The altitude should firstly be beneficial to his power game. He has shown over the past few weeks that when he wants to he has a game worthy of at top 10 material and on current form is one of the few players if on form that can trouble nadal. That's for a different day. He in albert montanes faces a good dirt baller. This can be seen in his recent victory in Estoril beating fed along the way. He is a player who usually follows up a good week with a lull in his next games. This can be seen when he got to qtrs in monte carlo, defeated in 3 by verdy, he followed it up with defeats against lorenzi and chardy. Further, when he won Budabest last year he was beat next game out vs mayer (granted there was a break but still).
In gulbis he faces a young man finally living up to his talent. Ever since the aus open he has been on fire, only getting beat by players it is acceptable to get beat by, mainly in the top 20. He is coming off a rest after a great rome tourni where he got to semis and i believe even if both were in good condition ernie would be a good shot at 1.6 as i don't see montanes having the weapons to beat gulbis. Essentially the game is on the gulbis racket. If he has a ue day without many winners he will find it tough or if he lets monty dictate and many rallies it will be a struggle. Essentially if gulis wants it, and plays well he should have more than enough for a tired monty.
Potential profit £48 before commission.
110 on Bellucci to beat Riba at 1.37
I believe bellucci has shown what a good player he is in recent weeks. He has only been beaten by ferrer, djoker and kohli (in 3rd tb) in last three tournies. The altitude will not worsen his game as he possesses a big awkard leftie serve. His top spin fhs should put riba well behind the baseline out of his comfort zone and force him into errors. Further Riba is a player mainly in challengers and against a player as consistent as bellucci has been at beating players he should it should be a step too far. Big step up for him to atp 1000's.
Potential Profit £39.60
Nothing inspiring yet but hope to get off to a nice solid start. Good luck to anyone reading.
95.6 on Lopez at 1.5 ( I see he's now trading above 1.5 and he's been negative in most books today. Hopefully talk of his personal life won't come into this).
Potential Profit £47.80
The two bets I have already done are Gulbis and bellucci. Two young pretenders who have proved quite profitable over the last few weeks.
£80 on Gulbis at 1.6
The altitude should firstly be beneficial to his power game. He has shown over the past few weeks that when he wants to he has a game worthy of at top 10 material and on current form is one of the few players if on form that can trouble nadal. That's for a different day. He in albert montanes faces a good dirt baller. This can be seen in his recent victory in Estoril beating fed along the way. He is a player who usually follows up a good week with a lull in his next games. This can be seen when he got to qtrs in monte carlo, defeated in 3 by verdy, he followed it up with defeats against lorenzi and chardy. Further, when he won Budabest last year he was beat next game out vs mayer (granted there was a break but still).
In gulbis he faces a young man finally living up to his talent. Ever since the aus open he has been on fire, only getting beat by players it is acceptable to get beat by, mainly in the top 20. He is coming off a rest after a great rome tourni where he got to semis and i believe even if both were in good condition ernie would be a good shot at 1.6 as i don't see montanes having the weapons to beat gulbis. Essentially the game is on the gulbis racket. If he has a ue day without many winners he will find it tough or if he lets monty dictate and many rallies it will be a struggle. Essentially if gulis wants it, and plays well he should have more than enough for a tired monty.
Potential profit £48 before commission.
110 on Bellucci to beat Riba at 1.37
I believe bellucci has shown what a good player he is in recent weeks. He has only been beaten by ferrer, djoker and kohli (in 3rd tb) in last three tournies. The altitude will not worsen his game as he possesses a big awkard leftie serve. His top spin fhs should put riba well behind the baseline out of his comfort zone and force him into errors. Further Riba is a player mainly in challengers and against a player as consistent as bellucci has been at beating players he should it should be a step too far. Big step up for him to atp 1000's.
Potential Profit £39.60
Nothing inspiring yet but hope to get off to a nice solid start. Good luck to anyone reading.
Looking forward
Today is a day where i contemplated many but think i'll stick with the one bet. Was thinking benny against as i was expecting a smaller price but due to his current form and conditioning can't back him. He looked woeful against volandri and this put me off. Mayer despite not making much noise at this level is in reasonable nick but surely is plenty short. Melzer was one also if he had of been 1.6 or over as he is a higher standard and matches up well good against big servers(apart from roddick). Didn't think it would be advisable to back melzer and lopez as first two bets, due to both being bad mentally questionable, ha. I see after a great 1st set melzer is again being himself and is well down in the second. Essentially anderson came through the qualies and seems to be in good nick and this was the reason i swerved. Was hoping to back giraldo as was expecting well above current prices but at around 1.66 i believe kohli may be a little value but i find it hard to back him at odds on against a player hot on form and through qualies.
Anyway onto tomorrow i have backed gulbis and bellucci as i believe their prices will drop. Will do write ups later
Anyway onto tomorrow i have backed gulbis and bellucci as i believe their prices will drop. Will do write ups later
Monday's bets
£80 on Lopez to beat Kubot at 1.5
Madrid is played at high altitude. This should be an advantage to Lopez with his powerful awkward serve. Kubot is a player in my opinion that can have good results as seen with some great vicories such as the one a poorly conditioned roddick and his run to the final in Brazil. However he was badly defeated in the final and his form has dropped off badly since. He has yet to impress in European clay and his only victory in last four tournies was clement and that includes one game in match vs starace. I never like backing lopez at odds on as he is poor mentally but he is usually consitent beating players he should on clay, only losing when odds against in a tourni on clayin the last year. Further Kubot has a poor career career record vs lefties 16-24 although he is 6-2 in last 8, losing the 6 before that. Overall he is a solid selection based on stats and current form.
Potential profit £40 before commission
Madrid is played at high altitude. This should be an advantage to Lopez with his powerful awkward serve. Kubot is a player in my opinion that can have good results as seen with some great vicories such as the one a poorly conditioned roddick and his run to the final in Brazil. However he was badly defeated in the final and his form has dropped off badly since. He has yet to impress in European clay and his only victory in last four tournies was clement and that includes one game in match vs starace. I never like backing lopez at odds on as he is poor mentally but he is usually consitent beating players he should on clay, only losing when odds against in a tourni on clayin the last year. Further Kubot has a poor career career record vs lefties 16-24 although he is 6-2 in last 8, losing the 6 before that. Overall he is a solid selection based on stats and current form.
Potential profit £40 before commission
A New Beginning
I have been betting on tennis now for a few years now. At the start it began as a little fun after a wimbledon, which i would follow religiously every year and then watch no tennis the rest.
I was poor and dabbled in accas on other accounts. This was before i realised betfair and their inflated prices. For the last year and a half i have been here and have moved on as a gambler and my knowledge is decent now but i hope through this thread it will be greatly improved through the obvious critiscism i will recieve. All constructive criticism is welcome.
Throughout my time here i would be in profit but quite modest profit. I have bet quite off the cuff. Usually i would select a player i thought was value and would dabble in play. This was time consuming and when hit a bad run my stakes may increase. I want a break from this type of gambling
I have now decided to put a bank into place, put in more research to my picks and just pick players outright and not alter in-play depending on my thoughts. I want to see with discipline if my outright selections can lead to a decent profit. I believe by recording everything here i can keep myself in check.
My other source of gambling on here has been laying football teams from the start based on value. This has been easy to stay disciplined as i would never look at the markets in play. This has proved profitbale since i started in around december.
As the football season is drawing to an end i have decided to put all my efforts into tennis and want to see how i perform. I started yesterday with a bank of £1000 and at the end of the day after backing karlovic, Dolgopolov Jr and cilic the bank now is 1067.30 which will be my start bank.
Wish me luck.
I was poor and dabbled in accas on other accounts. This was before i realised betfair and their inflated prices. For the last year and a half i have been here and have moved on as a gambler and my knowledge is decent now but i hope through this thread it will be greatly improved through the obvious critiscism i will recieve. All constructive criticism is welcome.
Throughout my time here i would be in profit but quite modest profit. I have bet quite off the cuff. Usually i would select a player i thought was value and would dabble in play. This was time consuming and when hit a bad run my stakes may increase. I want a break from this type of gambling
I have now decided to put a bank into place, put in more research to my picks and just pick players outright and not alter in-play depending on my thoughts. I want to see with discipline if my outright selections can lead to a decent profit. I believe by recording everything here i can keep myself in check.
My other source of gambling on here has been laying football teams from the start based on value. This has been easy to stay disciplined as i would never look at the markets in play. This has proved profitbale since i started in around december.
As the football season is drawing to an end i have decided to put all my efforts into tennis and want to see how i perform. I started yesterday with a bank of £1000 and at the end of the day after backing karlovic, Dolgopolov Jr and cilic the bank now is 1067.30 which will be my start bank.
Wish me luck.
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