After being burnt on backing against the home dogs in halle, ill put all my money on one player tomorrow. This is mahut who lives for this period of the year. He had a good queens last year where he beat cilic before being taking out by dr ivo.
Further, he comes into this tourni on good form. He won his first french open match in rd 1 before pushing melzer to four sets, losing a tb at 1-1. He then qualified for queens and the fact he has three games under his belt witha day break means he comes into the match in perfect nick.
Lu on the other hand hasnt played since his rd1 defeat to ljubicic. He has a terrible 38% career record on grass with most his wins coming some time ago. He is 1-9 in last 10 with his only win on grass since nottinham 2006 coming against colin fleming in three at eastbourne last year. Mahut on the other hand is 64% on grass showing the real difference between the two.
Lastly lu struggles against powerful servers. This is highlighted by tennisinsights stats of 44% against big servers (although some of the players there are debatable). He has a losing h2h of 3-0 vs karlovic, roddick and more importantly a 4-0 losing h2h vs mahut with the most recent victory coming this year in johannasberg. Lastly to beat mahut he will have to hold serve all day and i am not sure this is possible. A very confident call.
Potential Profit £80
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